yOU mE AND iRENE

[the kuz]

The track as of 11:00 AM today looks WAY too much like Isabel only with much higher winds forcast for the Chesapeake Bay area. If the center passes west of the bay we are going to have BIG TIME flooding. If just east of the Bay, Big Time winds. We are getting our plans together not only for the boat, but also for our house which sustained almost $100K damage in Isabel (the mighty Hat was unscathed!).

All you Mid Atlantic HOFers please have a good plan ready to go. Don't wait to the last minute. Let's hope for a better track, but be ready for the worst.

Best of Luck, Bob K

 

[Angela]

Unless something is out of purple ink, I see on the time-laspe color radar thing on the spaghetti modes dot com site that the large purple center has turned red with a yellow outline to it, and a yellow strip curling its way to what appears to be the eye. Is that a sign of weakening? Some dry air getting in? Or some wind shear?

 

[34Hatt]

I'd get the whaler off if you can. Even if you drop it on the ground next to the boat and fill it with water. If it stays on the top it will add more windage to the boat and make it rock more on the stands.

Before you haul make sure you have enough cable to reach the ground after you haul. I would think you need a good extra 5+ ft.
Just a thought!

 

[GJH]

Ang, there are several places inside Boot Key Harbor (Marathon) that could take you boat IF they had room.Plenty of depth. One of the Sombrero marinas would likely be most protected. The issue is, would there be room at the inn, so to speak? I like certainty, which is why I pay the "protection" money to have a spot at JB, which may be a compromise, but I don't want to be stressing about second guessing the forecast and trying to find the perfect hidey hole. Even in a good hole, of which there are some possibilities around here, I don't feel like riding one of these out at anchor. This way at least, I am in one of the largest boatyard complexes in the US. "Jarrett Bay" is a large marine industrial park with several yards (one of which is Jarrett Bay Boatworks), builders and specialists all right there. So if I have to put Humpty Dumpty back together again, it's ideal.

34Hatt: yep, we got plenty of cable. Thought occurred to me last year.

 

[SeaWhisper]

Unless something is out of purple ink, I see on the time-laspe color radar thing on the spaghetti modes dot com site that the large purple center has turned red with a yellow outline to it, and a yellow strip curling its way to what appears to be the eye. Is that a sign of weakening? Some dry air getting in? Or some wind shear?

Ang,

To track Irene, take a look at www.stormpulse.com Nice graphics....

 

[Pascal]

There is no such thing as a one size fit all storm plan a or b, every storm is different andmay require different action

Being on the hard up river with 120kts is no guarantee. The risk of damage due to flying debris, falling utility pole, etc is very high.

Canals are ok but not ideal, it depends on where you are. For instance, how far from the inlet is Martha s dock? How tall are the pilings? Whne the surge comes in will the pilings be tall enough?Which orientation is the dock? Will you be pinned against the dock by the prevailing winds? Any tall trees nearby?

There are literally dozens of variables which can affect the outcome

The best option remains to get out of the bull eyes. Personally at this point, if i were in NC I'd be waiting for the next 3 advisories and by early morning make the go/nogo decision to move the boat west towards SC. Hurricane force winds never extend very far from center especially on the west side

Here in SoFl, going down to the keys for any storm coming ashore north to Mia is the best option. Finding dockage is an issue though especially with larger boats. I ve done it abfew times over the years, last time was for jeanne (or France's) in 04. I went to mangrove marina in Tavernier. Another time inwent to plantation yacht harbor in islamorada

Marathon has good protection and can accommodate larger boats, if you can find room. Duck key too... Inwouldnt weather a direct hit in Duck key but it s far enough for a strong one hitting Mia

Or if there is any hint in the forecast that the storm will not slide north, like Andrew, them going north is the best option... Again you only need 60 to 70 miles

Now my immediate concern is where Irene will go after NC... too early to know but if it doesn't recurve I ll have to fly to Nantucket go take care of Charmer...

 

[Angela]

Canals are ok but not ideal, it depends on where you are. For instance, how far from the inlet is Martha s dock? How tall are the pilings? Whne the surge comes in will the pilings be tall enough?Which orientation is the dock? Will you be pinned against the dock by the prevailing winds? Any tall trees nearby?

Martha is located at what appeared on the map as Lighthouse Point. She's north of Hillsboro Inlet (and south of Boca Raton), but going into Hillsboro Inlet, there is only one bridge between the inlet and her house. She is a couple of blocks over from the ICW and the canal faces north/south. It has dolphin pilings - she had to rebuild all of that after Wilma. During Wilma, her 80-footer was there. She peeked out the window and the boat was gone. She thought, "Where idoes a 80-foot boat go?" It was there one moment; gone the next. It was going down to the dead end of the canal. She wanted to go get it, but her husband said, "No, that's why we have insurance," but she thought about how that was going to destroy everyone else's boats and she just couldn't let that happen. So Martha (a little woman who weighs probably 90 pounds soaking wet) left the house, ran down there by herself, made her way onto the boat and brought it back all on her own. Jack just wasn't going out in that! LOL Her neighbor took photos of her at the time he was clocking the winds. He gave her the photo and wrote "100 mph wind" on it. So...end of story...she rebuilt that dock and the pilings with that incident in mind and so that that would, hopefully, never happen again. Ed told me she's got those big hurricane cleats on the seawall side - they have a name - I don't know what they are called. I saw a photo of it with her 80-footer in it (haven't been up there yet), and the pilings went up to her boat's flybridge floor, just over the PH doors, so it appears to be plenty of height - more than we have here at Dinner Key. Looks like a suitable place to run if north is the place to go. Any place has got to be better than Dinner Key.

 

[Pascal]

sounds pretty good, pilings are critical, if they are too low they can wreck the boat.

still in a really strong storm, if the wind pin you agaisnt the piling, you can get in serious trouble as fenders will not stay in place (even with fender boards). I trust the hatt rub rail but it has its limits.

so, yes it is a good option but i would not ride a storm there given a better choice and in your case moving the boat further away would be a better option. Deefield is only 35nm away...

 

[rsmith]

11pm still shows it headed to NC

 

[nyrussell]

Does the statement cat 1 projected for NYC mean anything?

 

[Pascal]

Well the 5 am now has it at 105mph off the jersey coast, NYC would be on the weaker side but it would still bs a rough ride. A little early to tell since the track is still shifting eas and it may end up passing further east. Need anothe day to know

Yes the 11pm was still on NC but further east and the 5am is nudged a little further, great news

 

[nyrussell]

105mph off the coast? LOL still looking too

 

[bobk]

105mph off the coast? LOL still looking too

Noel, It looks like a great time to take a cruise to Kingston.

Bob

 

[nyrussell]

Bob,

We shall see, and I was considering poughkeepsie (dinner at the CIA maybe?)

Noel

 

[ron6785]

Well Bout Time has been on the hard in Hampstead , NC. all summer while we've been up in Canada which is where we still are. Can't do any more except instructed Anchors Away Boat Yard to Tie her down so lets just hope she keeps bending east.

 

[Pascal]

<sight> based on the 5pm track still affecting new england and more worrisome, the NHC discussion talking about a northerly track after Cape H. instead of recurving, I've booked a flight for friday to Nantucket to take care of the 70 I run... if it stays on track for Long Island, we'll be on right side but with mostly southerly winds so i'll stay at the boat basin... if it shifts more to the east, i'll move west...

how ironic that the underwriters dont' allow us to cross into Florida before Nov 1st, but it's the second year in a row we get a close call up north!

hopefully there won't be anything exciting to watch on the cam!

 

[Avenger]

Crap, I should have kept my big yap shut.

Now it looks like my trailer is in the crosshairs.

 

[Angela]

how ironic that the underwriters dont' allow us to cross into Florida before Nov 1st, but it's the second year in a row we get a close call up north!

I was just saying, "Since I've lived in Miami for the past 5+ years, New England (and the NE in general) has had more hurricanes than we have, yet I still get the pleasure of paying for a hurricane every year." Hummm....where's the fairness in that?

 

[Pascal]

Don't forget that when Isabel caused damage inthe Chesie, we all got nice premium increases down here specifically naming Isabel as the reason!

So we pay more because we re in Florida and then again for damage those Yankees suffer!

Completely unfair!

Oh well... There are worst places to spend a weekend than nantucket...

 

[Passages]

Ok, this gal Irene now has the attention of us Southern New England folks. Forecasts range from just heavy rain to a full Cat 2.

ETA on our coast is Sunday. I'll hold judgement until Friday.

btw - we thank you southerners for doing your part in keeping our insurance premiums low.