What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

[rsmith]

What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

Looks like a bad one some forecast show cat5. Poor Juice is stuck with a dead boat. Prayers for him and everyone else. Looks like it’s going to hold together across the state. I’m on the dirty side when it pops out just north of us. They’re hoping for last minute shear to slow it down. We can only hope.

 

[Pascal]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

It s going to be a tricky one. While the NHC has been excellent with track forecasts over the last 10 years, this one still has to make two turns… first to the NE and then ENE. Timing will be critical as any delay in these turns will have huge consequences.

Intensity forecast is where accuracy still leaves a lot to be desired…

I just noticed that the latest model runs this morning have shifted a little bit to the left with a possible landfall just north of Tampa Bay. Wouldn’t be surprised if the 11am or 5PM update follows that. Still a lot of time to change.

 

[ian w]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

What historically is the best forecast site

 

[Pascal]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

What historically is the best forecast site

National Hurricane Center. Every thing else especially news sites just regurgitate the NHC forecast with their own graphics.

The most important element of the packages published every 6 hours by the NHC is the Discussion. It explains the element behind the forecast and is very educational. Years ago, it used to be called the Intra governmental discussion as it was really aimed at local officials.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/071455.shtml?

My other goto site is https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ where Dr Cowan posts a daily video when situation warrants which give further details and insight. No drama, no tee shirts and mugs for sale, just the technical facts. His website also has a bunch of excellent resources including live recon data, models etc for anyone who wants to dig a little deeper although you can’t just look at models and understand what’s going on. Like political polls, you can always find one to advance a theory…

A popular website is www.spaghettimodels.com. It s pretty much just a page of linked graphics, and stuff for sale…

 

[Captain Ralph]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

Do you think the base line changing north/south a few miles is going to make a big difference to S/W FL?
Make a difference to much of central Florida?
If the storm lands north/south 50 miles and comes over to the Atlantic north/south 100 miles, I know were still going to flood in N/E FL.

 

[Pascal]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

Do you think the base line changing north/south a few miles is going to make a big difference to S/W FL?
Make a difference to much of central Florida?
If the storm lands north/south 50 miles and comes over to the Atlantic north/south 100 miles, I know were still going to flood in N/E FL.

Even 50 miles makes a huge difference. If it makes landfall slightly north of Tampa bay, like Clearwater, the surge inside Tampa bay will be much higher than if it hits south, like Venice. With the storm coming out of the west the worst of surge will be to the south of the eye with the onshore wind.

Also, at this time hurricane force winds are expected to extend 30nm to the north and 40nm to the south from the center of circulation. And that’s for 64kts, which is not that bad. The eye wall where the damaging winds are, only extends 20/25nm out… so yes exact landfall point makes a huge difference but at this time it s impossible to pinpoint especially since hurricanes never move in a straight line but wobble around.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

But of course none of that matter if you get hit by an embedded tornado inside a feeder band like we got here in miami during Irma.

 

[JD5652]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

Current Prediction for storm surge in from Tampa Bay to Venice is 8-12 feet. if that holds, it will be catastrophic on top of Helene catastrophic.

Boat is staying put in Riviera Dunes, but I'm evacuating to NOLA.

 

[rsmith]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

Current Prediction for storm surge in from Tampa Bay to Venice is 8-12 feet. if that holds, it will be catastrophic on top of Helene catastrophic.

Boat is staying put in Riviera Dunes, but I'm evacuating to NOLA.

Looks like a direct hit on Bradenton at this point.

 

[Pascal]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

Current Prediction for storm surge in from Tampa Bay to Venice is 8-12 feet. if that holds, it will be catastrophic on top of Helene catastrophic.

Boat is staying put in Riviera Dunes, but I'm evacuating to NOLA.

That looks like it s going to be ground zero. Why not head south to Ft Myers and inland thru the OWW to safety?

 

[Scarlett]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

It’s now a Cat 5 , 160 mph winds hang on you guys

 

[rsmith]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

That looks like it s going to be ground zero. Why not head south to Ft Myers and inland thru the OWW to safety?

That’s exactly what I’d be doing.

 

[rsmith]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

175mph now! Wonder how it will effect the oil rigs out there?

 

[Pascal]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

From tropical storm to 175MPH in 30 hours. That’s a record.

 

[Captain Ralph]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

I fear ground zero will include most of central Florida. That wondering forecast line is still guess work but it has gotten better these last few years.
Just a few years ago these were the forecast lines.

 

[zigzag930]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

Storm anchor will be going out tomorrow morning in the canals as I am side tied here. We have ben fortunate with Irma, Ian and Helene using ground anchors and lots of lines tied to the pilings. I use double 12"x32" fenders on each pile to help spread the load.

But....every storm is different and impact point 30 miles one way or the other can make a huge difference.

One thing I have noticed here in Punta Gorda with Milton is that we are still seeing the low tides. In fact a very low tide today as the winds are blowing from the east right now. With Helene, the winds were out of the south/sw for days and we didn't see any low tide for days. I do hope this trend continues as Milton approaches.

Helene passed Punta Gorda about 150 offshore, but as it was roaring north we saw the dirty side of the storm and experienced the largest surge in probably 75 years. (I don't think Punta Gorda was around much before that). If this storm goes to Tampa or 25 miles +/- of there, I'm sure we'll see some serious surge again. Helene put our downtown area under water, but most of the homes in my area were safe, having about 2' to go before flooding. One possible good thing with this storm.... looks like it may the 1st one to hit during daylight hours. That would be a nice change.

Anyway, I truly hope everyone stays safe and comes out of this one without any major damage.

 

[rsmith]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

Apparently midnight Wednesday night Thursday AM they always hit at night. Why is that?

 

[JD5652]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

That looks like it s going to be ground zero. Why not head south to Ft Myers and inland thru the OWW to safety?

Right now the exact landfall is a crap shoot. Landfall with this storm 20-30 miles aside one point or another will make a big difference. I'd rather take my chances in a marina that I know has great hurricane preparedness ... has robust docks and where the boat is hurricane tied very well... as well as it can be.

No one I know of in our marina is leaving searching for a better spot. There are much bigger and more expensive boats in our marina than mine with several of them with full or part time professional crews.

If I decided to leave for a possibly "better" spot, I could easily end up with accommodations and preparedness that are not as good and is a place I do not know well.... in addition to the storm possibly wobbling in the direction I went. Too many unknowns with a move for me. Also, I'd be competing for space with many other vessels. Not too many good reliable spots to accommodate the size and weight of a 58 LRC. The 58 LRC is a 9 - 10 knot boat at best. Difficult to outrun anything at 9 knots.

In addition to the above, I've had to prep my house for this hurricane... which formed very quickly ... and it took me two days to prep the house.... in addition to me having total knee replacement surgery 5 weeks ago.

I evacuated my family to NOLA on one of the last flights out of TPA last night.

May God Bless everyone in the path of this hurricane and all the best to everyone!

Stay Safe!

 

[rsmith]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

I’m curious do the marinas still tell you to leave if a storms coming? One of the reasons I bought the boat a house was always fighting with the marinas. I had the boat for many years at Old Port cove in Palm Beach. I was typically in Cape May for hurricane season but one year I left it there for the summer. They drove me crazy calling wanted the boat moved every time they was even a threat. 39 years later it was the best move I made. Although 2 years ago I bit the bullet and replaced the sea wall and deadmen. It’s something every waterfront owner fears. But while I was at it I raised the it 12” and put in a new dock and all pilings at the same time. Naturally the entire back yard was torn up for over 2 years but it’s bulletproof.

 

[Captain Ralph]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

Right now the exact landfall is a crap shoot. Landfall with this storm 20-30 miles aside one point or another will make a big difference.

Amazing logic (NOT).
When this front hits Florida, the surge will be up to 100 miles wide.

May God Bless everyone in the path of this hurricane and all the best to everyone!

Including you.

 

[SKYCHENEY]

Re: What’s everyone’s plan on the west coast Florida?

I would not leave my boat in the path of this storm. I'd be moving and I'd keep moving until I was safe. Any excuse for a boat trip is the way I see it. I'd rather be running my boat then worrying about it.

But I wish you all the best. I hope the surge is less than they have forecast. And most of all, protect life ahead of property. Things can be replaced. Stay safe.