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Heads up West Coast (again!)

  • Thread starter Thread starter Genesis
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Most recent forecast has it going across the Everglades, which will not do much to knock it down. With nothing to protect the back side of the northern keys, the flooding there may be unbelievable. If I were in Key Largo area, I would run to the north with my boat - head for northern Florida - no later than tommorow if it were me.
Tom
 
There is now a model run out that is doing something TRULY BIZARRE - taking it inland over the Yucatan, then back out into the channel, and then crossing Western Cuba!

This would presuppose a complete miss with the trough forming over the South-Central US. I'm not buying it - yet - but I do see what the model is looking at, and it may be right.

If it gets cut off from steering flow like that then you'd EXPECT an easterly track, but in all honesty in that situation all bets are off, as the expected steering would have collapsed.
 
tom

unfortunately it's too early to know what' going to happen. As Genesis said, it may miss the through altogether (especailly since it's still moving WNW instead of NW)... or it can actually accelerate more to the NE, the NHC is starting to mention a run off the coast to New England...

at this point it's too early to make any decision... moving boats to northern FL is not an option yet this there is still a good chance that the storm could hit further north... i'd hate to move north just to be even closer to the eye :-(
 
Unfortunately this is one of those storms - like a lot of them that we get up here in the gulf - that leave you with no GOOD options and someone being about to get screwed.

If this thing comes at you at 20kts, you can't get away from it. So you're either where you're ok, or you're not.

We run into this all the time up here - the path is not certain enough to know which direction to go, and you're cut off from safety in virtually any direction due to your vessel's speed and the motion of the storm.

This is not a good thing....

It doesn't happen all that often on the east coast of the state, but it does all the time up here in the Panhandle. In this case the best you can do is IF you have a hurricane hole, get there tomorrow or Friday at the latest. If not, then making application to the deity wouldn't be a bad idea.....
 
Move to Michigan. We need good, working folks here. Our water in the Great Lakes is fresh and we have no hurricanes. Winter can be a little tough though.
 
I lived in Michigan for almost 20 years. Never again. Its a nice place to visit - in the summer......

Solid water and I do not get along - I dealt with too much of it earlier in my life.
 
Good luck and stay safe!
 
Genesis is right- this is what happened with Rita-they kept predicting that it would land over toward Corpus Christi--than kept revising it eastward-so that making the move to get on the good side of the storm was not feasible. In the end I had to secure her in her slip--fortunately the eye went east of us and Doc's Holiday didn't go through the covered slip. If you are going to leave South Florida-now is the time--perhaps the Bahamas if conditions are such that crossing the gulf stream is feasible.
Good luck to Y'all.
 
I would not want to be in Cozumel right now - looks like it is in the Bullseye. Can you imagine the airport situation with tourists trying to get out of Cancun...I would imagine that ALL of the cruise ships that use the channel (and there are many) have rerouted to new destinations.
Tom
 
It is increasingly looking like the connection with the first trough will miss and the second will pick it up.

This will cause the storm to HIT the Yucatan - possibly as a Cat 5, as the ERC underway now will be complete later today. That will severely suck for Cancun/Cozumel.

I still think the Florida Peninsula is in for a pasting, but perhaps not as bad, and the bad news is that if this thing DOES miss the first connection exactly WHERE on the Peninsula is not going to be easily forecast.

Indeed, if that first connection misses I'm going to get a bit uneasy up HERE!
 
I’m not gonna’ relax till this thing makes its turn, whenever that is…:eek:
 
Greg,
I'm doing the same. Going down to the boat in Carrabelle tonight. I've been tracking at every update. I just want it to hurry up and turn. There's not but one man can tell where it is going and he is not telling. He will let us see in a few days where he is steering it. The waiting is about to drive me crazy. Good Luck in my home town. Ya'll definitely don't need another one.
captbuddy
 
Buddy,

Have fun @ the boat. Hopefully it will be a quiet weekend…

And hopefully it won’t be so bad for your folks down in S. Fl.
 
yes... it sucks for cozumel... 30 miles eye... 5mph... they could be in the for as much as5 to 6 hours.... with hurricane for winds extending 60 or 70 miles, that's at least 10 hours of hell before AND after the eye. if they don't get the eye.. that's going to be a good 24 hours of hurricane force winds.. yikes.

things that may stay together for a few hours will fall apart in such slow movers...
 
:o :p :confused: :rolleyes:
DOUBLE EAGLE HERE
flew in thurs to marathon...
just here to make sure everything is ol and go to the boat show if it happpens
so far I think it will miss us again...thanks lord...
hope everyone gets what they want on this one ..
stay tuned
double eagle in marathon fla

bill
 
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