Heads up keys and so Florida

[rsmith]

Thought we were going to get away this year unscathed but the models keep coming this way. Looks like a tue Wednesday even. Still some variables but I’m battening down the hatches if this tract stays constant by Sunday

 

[JuiceClark]

I'm hoping the prediction being dead-on for my dock means it'll land somewhere else. I can't recall an early prediction being exactly correct!

 

[rsmith]

Reminds me of Charlie in 04 which started the season from hell. I landed for fuel right after it went through Daytona quite a few hangars collapsed there and damaged aircraft even though it hit punta gorda and Orlando first

 

[Pascal]

And Charlie underwent rapid intensification just north of western Cuba… lots of very warm water there

The 5PM has been nudged a little bit to the west and as per NHC lies on the east side of most models

Problem would be having most of the state on the east side of the storm, that’s the side where you get the worst bands and embedded tornadoes. That’s what caused all the destruction here at our marina with Irma… it wasn’t the wind itself as the center was far but embedded tornadoes

Gonna be a long week end.

 

[cww]

Reminds me of Charlie in 04 which started the season from hell. I landed for fuel right after it went through Daytona quite a few hangars collapsed there and damaged aircraft even though it hit punta gorda and Orlando first

That was indeed the season from hell. I'm from Daytona and we had like 5 hurricanes that came right for us that year. I helped my parents put the plywood up, take it down, put it up, take it down, finally we said f*ck it and just left it up until Xmas. We got clobbered twice.

This new one's worrisome. The ones that duck into the gulf before hitting tend to be bad. We had one back 5 years ago or so that did that and it was nuts. The anemometer at my dad's place on the beachside in Daytona was reading 120 until it flew off the roof. That was after it had already come across the entire state. You can still see all the pine trees bent at 20-30 degree angles along I-4. It flooded out my building in Jax, pushed all the water in the St. Johns ahead of it. My first floor neighbors got rescued out of their unit by the coast guard in orange inflatable boats. That is certainly something you don't see every day on a residential street. I really hope this one turns.

 

[madhatter1]

I do building controls. Was sent to a Lowe’s distribution center in Poinciana Florida by Orlando. Large rooftop units were crushed from the wind pressure. Like the Hulk “smashed “! Then some of the smaller office units did okay due to low profile. But one was ripped from its curb and hanging over the side of the building by the electrical wires. We all agreed that whoever did the electrical work was the best electrician.

 

[rsmith]

Just a reminder of Ft Pierce in 04 Frances.

 

[rsmith]

And then there was my house 5 miles north of FtPierce. Tore off the roof and gutted the house.

 

[madhatter1]

I built a hurricane “proof “ house in 2006. No hurricanes so far except Irma which blew the water out.

 

[Pascal]

the house I built on st barths in the 80s withstood Luis in 95 which was a very slow moving cat 5 that passed right on the island. SOB took his time… 36 hours but only lost a few gutters.

Problem are the embedded tornadoes. Unpredictable

 

[cww]

And then there was my house 5 miles north of FtPierce. Tore off the roof and gutted the house.

Jesus.

 

[Captain Ralph]

I'm hoping the prediction being dead-on for my dock means it'll land somewhere else. I can't recall an early prediction being exactly correct!

Between the GSF and European weather models, the exact path of TD9 is pretty uncertain as now.
The big cone of weather uncertainty has the eye hitting the upper keys to Panama City.
Florida will still get clobbered somewhere.
Sadly, the longer the storm stays in the gulf, the uglier it will hit.
I found this interesting site last year.
Already Levi is explaining the building of TD9 here.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Pascal]

His daily analysis is the best. Nothing flashy, no dogs, no drama queen, he doesn’t sell tee shirt or coffee mugs. Just solid stuff.

His explanation of how the models are having a hard time dealing with the current shape of the system is very educational. We just need to wait till the damn thing actually forms.

 

[JuiceClark]

Between the GSF and European weather models, the exact path of TD9 is pretty uncertain as now.
The big cone of weather uncertainty has the eye hitting the upper keys to Panama City.
Florida will still get clobbered somewhere.
Sadly, the longer the storm stays in the gulf, the uglier it will hit.
I found this interesting site last year.
Already Levi is explaining the building of TD9 here.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

That's a good one. This Mike guy is a little long-winded, but I'll watch the updates from each of those until she arrives.
https://youtu.be/cb_dAOBuLko?t=345

I have 9 lines attached to 7 pilings and I'll drop the big anchor in the middle of the canal. 7 bumpers lining the starboard along a bumper-lined dock. I'm not aware of anything else I can do to keep a 52C out of my pool. The biggest risk seems to be the wind blowing directly toward the dock and this beast of a boat crushing it.

 

[rsmith]

Plug your fuel vents and anything that will let driving rain in. I cut some old bumpers and shove them in the exhaust. In Frances I forgot the stove vent and had water made it’s way through the ductwork and had a waterfall coming down on the stove.
First dock I had had single tie off piles. Any heavy wind they would bend and the boat would lay against the dock. I went to triples and had no problem for many years Frances and Jeene came and the trips couldn’t keep the boat off the dock. Now I have a cluster of 6 each. If anything takes them out it’s all over anyway.
Try to use 3 strand lines the braided May have a higher capacity on paper but they chew through faster and in a sudden gust the impact will snap them. I had a 3/4” braided line snap in the middle with no abrasion in Jeene. We had a heavy gust which knocked me off my feet inside the boat. The line snapped with a sound like a rifle shot. Later when I looked at it all the ends were melted where it broke from the tremendous heat of all those strands choking together when it came taught.

 

[madhatter1]

At 8 AM it was headed directly to my 46. Now at 11 its headed north of my 46. Which is worse!!

 

[rsmith]

At 8 AM it was headed directly to my 46. Now at 11 its headed north of my 46. Which is worse!!

The NE quadrant is worst. It’s the gusts and mini tornadoes that do the most damage.

 

[Pascal]

Spaghetti Mike is a bit of a drama queen so he can increase traffic to his page which is really nothing more than a page of links. Tropical tidbits is a lot more technical.

The 11am has shifted a little more to the west resulting in a landfall further up coast. Problem with the west coast is that storm come form the south at a very shallow angle so it s very difficult to narrow down the landfall point

I always look at the trend, not the individual tracks. And since the start NHC has been shifting W and N, a little at a time. The pan handle or at least Big Bend is at risk too

 

[JD5652]

At 8 AM it was headed directly to my 46. Now at 11 its headed north of my 46. Which is worse!!

Yep... I'm right there with you!.... I'll be going down tomorrow to put more lines on and put out the fender boards...

 

[Captain Ralph]

Well, TD9 has a name now; Ian.