Gulfcoast Concerns for GUSTAV

[ThirdHatt]

It's not looking good for us at this point gents........

 

[ThirdHatt]

Anybody got a triple axle 18,000lb GVWR boat trailer that will fit a 31' twin diesel inboard boat? I need to get the little boat out of the water and inland if this thing is coming here.

If we get the "bad" side (east) it would bring more water than Katrina, possibly much more! Gustav could be the nail in New Orleans' coffin. Bad, very bad.

 

[Passages]

This one has not received much national attention yet. I'm up in the NE, but still try to monitor severe weather.

The potential for this biting LA - TX in the arse is there. Prudence would dictate making preperation now.

Byron, I suspect your worry is storm surge so a short haul at the marina will not buy much protection. Absent of moving to higher ground, best option is to clear decks, remove canvas, top off batteries, spider web lines with plenty of chafe protection. I realize you know the drill. I just mention this for the benefit of the less experienced.

Good luck.

 

[ThirdHatt]

Yep, the surge is a very real concern for us. Katrina hit just east of us and even on the "good" side it still brought 4' of water over my dock. Two weeks later a much weaker Rita hit far west at the Tx-La state line and still brought nearly 3' of water over the dock here on the other side of the state! Rita brought more water than I had ever seen by more than two feet, if it weren't for Katrina.

If Katrina would have hit just 30 miles west or any other storm hits much west of the La-Ms state line the amount of water coming into the New Orleans area will be like never before. Hopefully it is still too early to tell and something will change SOON.

 

[SKYCHENEY]

What about running upstream and out of the surge? If you were to take her inland, when do you start thinking about running and where do you go from there?

 

[Genesis]

Guys, this one is going to be very bad whoever it "gets".

I am concerned that it may come a bit further east and get ME.

There is a very high probability that the storm will go over the warm loop current eddy, and if it does, it will almost certainly deepen explosively when that occurs. There is a better than 50% chance this is a Cat 5 in the south-central Gulf. It won't STAY a 5 all the way to impact, but you need to be aware that there are models currently showing 150kt winds as it passes over that eddy - this is NOT something to take lightly.

I'm not at all convinced that the models have this one right in the out-days. There are a number of "ifs" that all have to fall into place for that path - or one west of it - to verify.

This storm is going to catch lots of people off-guard. If you're potentially in the path - which means you're in the US and on the Gulf - I would recommend being prepared for an impact by Friday morning, with the ability to execute your plan and be secured by Sunday morning.

 

[Pascal]

Katrina should have been the final nail in NOLA's coffin... it wasn't...

they will keep rebuilding and rebuilding and rebuilding...

this was cna be just as bad... there seem to be very little odds that it will not drastically intensify once it gets in the gulf. The 5 day position and models dont' mean much right now and i woudn't be surprised if it shifts further east.

unless the thing remains stalled for a day or so and the ridge blockign it builds further west enough to shove it in the yucatan...

 

[Boatsb]

The good news is the storm is giving everyone a bit of warning. Fay may have caused everyone to relax and let their guard down but Gustav is full of fight.

The latest models have it hitting at least 3 other places than Norleans making the chance of landfall there less likely but still very dangerous. Anywhere from Florida's big bend to what may end up on the Texas coast.

Preparation is all you can do. It is better to be prepared and the storm miss you than the other.

How long until they evac Norleans?

 

[RWayne]

I have yet to take my boat back south due to extensive traveling. At this point, I'm glad I haven't. Good luck to those of you living in the Gulf coastal areas, I fear you may need it.

 

[ThirdHatt]

There's nowhere I can run the Hatt that would get her far enough inland here in Louisiana to make a difference. I'd have to head east 130 miles and then go up the Mobile River.

I am not AS concerned for the Hatt as for the Ocean Master. It has a T-top so it can't stay in my lift because when the water rises it will get crushed into the boathouse. Self-draining decks work fine in regular rain, but not hurricane rain because the scuppers can't dewater fast enough so tying it up out in the weather is no good either.

Look at the change just from 3 hrs ago in the models, they are beginning to think further east. Still too early to tell but if it coming anywhere close to NOLA, east of us is MUCH better than west although I hope it doesn't get any of us here in the US!

 

[Boatsb]

Maybe it will make landfall in Cuba and the government there will not allow it to leave?

My wife thinks thats funny. She's Cuban.

Seriously the gulf coast is going to take a hit. How bad it is depends on how it builds and also where and when it hits.

 

[Genesis]

NoGaps is very unlikely to verify, and if it does, it will be a MUCH weaker storm, as it will miss the warm eddy and get shredded by Cuba.

It will still be bad (Cat 2ish), but not a monster (Cat 4ish).

I also don't buy that solution.

 

[SKYCHENEY]

East is better for fuel prices too. If that thing hits the Gulf rigs or the LA & TX refineries, we will surely see a big spike in gas prices.

 

[Mambeaux]

Byron my boat is still at The Wharf and I’m glad it is. They have a full Hurricane plan and have people there around the clock. I like the idea of tying to a floating dock that can handle a twenty foot surge.

Last weekend when we were there they had six 60/70 foot boats come in for Fay. I know of three boats from here on the way over there today.
We’ll see what happens…..

 

[Traveler 45C]

Hurr Ivan wiped out every floating dock in Pensacola. They handled the surge, just didn’t have enough pilings to hold it all together with the leverage of all the boats cranking on them that high above the bottom. Plus, the docks themselves broke apart from the thrashing, and if tied to those… Lots of boats floated away still tied to a portion of its floating dock.

Every marina was wiped out also, except mine; an old fixed wooden dock, but we’re in a very protected cove. Fixed docks add structural support for the pilings. Some pulled up 5-7 feet, but they stayed put and so did the boat tied to it.

Floating docks are fine for normal tidal movements, but I wouldn’t want to tie to a flexible structure for a hurr. I’d rather tie up to something that isn’t going to move.

 

[ThirdHatt]

Jack, you should be fine at the Wharf. The dockmaster Rob is amazing and will do whatever to keep boats safe. With that said, those big metal pipes that hold the floating docks in place aren't 20' above the deck, maybe 12' or so right? I would think that a 20' surge would float those docks over the pipes and then all heck would break loose!

 

[Passages]

Pascoe does not seem concerned and he's next door to you (Karl).

Here's his take:

http://davidpascoeblog.com/2008/08/26/fuss-about-gus/

 

[Genesis]

He's had too many hits off the bong.

I doubt its going to come here; that, right now, is a ~10% risk from where I sit.

I inventoried all my shutter supplies today anyway.

My "impact cone" right now runs from Pascagoula to Galveston with intensity from a Middling Cat 3 to a decent 4, odds towards the former, 70% confidence on the track.

By the way, look at his "Geronimo" post. From the 24th.

My, how the wind blows when you've sold too many f&ing books to remember what you blogged about TWO DAYS PRIOR!

And nary a mention of "I was wrong" either.

Hubris folks. Its not just for breakfast and people with boats that haven't sold in two years any more.

 

[Pascal]

he must have inhaled too much fiberglass fumes during his career... he really should have stuck with surveying boats!

 

[Maynard Rupp]

They should start evacuating New Orleans as soon so that those locals will have plenty of time to loot and still be able to evacuate. Then we can send in the FEMA trailers again.