Fuel prices for 2008

[Jaxfishgyd]

Last week in the business section of my newspaper there was a writeup out of Washington DC that stated gas prices WILL hit $3.75-3.95 a gal by spring time. (Today here in Jacksonville it's $3.07 a gal)
IF that was to be true, the price of diesel will also go a lot higher.
I "normally" burn 800-1200 gals a year. But when I bought our boat in 2000, the price was also 94 cents a gal.
Just wondering how it will impact the rest of you on what plans you have for the coming year. I know it will cause me to cut back on the amount of trips I will be making.

 

[Genesis]

I expect that fuel prices will skyrocket in the early part of the year, but as demand destruction gets going later on this year, they will collapse along with the price of oil.

 

[kwerges]

We were looking to do a San Diego-to-La Paz, Mexico trip possibly next year, 900 - 1,000 miles each way (depending on side trips). Even with the cost of diesel in Mexico being traditionally lower, it appears the cost increases are trying to stay up with the U.S. Cruising at a 1 to 1 speed (mph vs mpg), it may require waiting until '09 to save for fuel costs...

 

[Mike Hill]

I have been traveling from Maryland to the Florida Keys since 2000, but am in the process of looking into house rentals for the 2009 season. It will be cheaper to rent a home for 5 months then to pay for the trip and Marina fees.I will miss the trip, but I don't think it's going to get any cheaper. But I now have buy a small fishing boat to trailer back and forth, so it may take 2 years to make up the money I'll be saving. Plus this will give me more cruising time on the Chesapeake, which is a plus.

 

[Roscoe]

Accelerating global oil depletion rates have climbed to over 4% which erases nearly 4 million barrels per day out of each year's production while high costs and technically challenging fields have left global supply growth vulnerable to project delays.

Coupled with surging demand in developing countries, this depletion and stalled production growth will lead to the global supply of oil to drop by as much as 8 million barrels per day below the US Department of Energy's estimates by 2012.

Look for $150 per barrel of oil by 2012 and a fuel price of $6 per gallon.

India just unveiled a $2500 car and demand for fuel from the developing world will create higher oil prices. Also, many developing countries subsidize the cost of fuel.

Any hope for oil price collapse is wishful thinking because the economics of a very challenging discovery environment make cheaper oil difficult.

As we have noticed last week,when oil prices drop,it takes very little for certain countries to escalate geopolitical tensions to the point that the oil price goes back up.

 

[Maynard Rupp]

We filled our 36C with gas yesterday at Crandon Park Marina in Miami. $3.54/ gallon. I also noticed their diesel fuel was also $3.54. The other places around here are $3.80 for gas and $3.50 for diesel. I do see a trend that was started last year at auto gas stations where gas is cheaper than diesel. Lucky me, I have a gas engined boat and a diesel truck. So i get screwed at all fueling places. Watch out diesel Hatteras owners, I think the tide is turning on diesel that is cheaper than gas.

 

[SKYCHENEY]

To answer the original question, no. I do not intend to burn less fuel and run the boat less because diesel will be $4/gal. I figure that since I cut and burn wood all winter and don't burn any gas to heat my house, I more than pay for the diesel fuel for the boat. I know, it's just a way to justify the cost, but I've got to have some justification for this habit.

Just think, if I were a 2 pack/day smoker, I'd be spending $3600/year. But since I'm not, there's another 1000 gallons I can burn. I can find all kinds of justifications for boating. In fact, I thinks it's my #1 priority. Now I just have to find a way to earn a living without actually working. Then I could spend all of my time the boat.

 

[mtadamek]

Fuel prices will keep going up until demand drops. Unfortunately there is not much we can do about it here in the U.S. Global demand is up, but don't drink the koolaid and think there is a shortage. The oil companies have created a false market by capping wells and waiting for the price to rise to bring them to market. There are many examples of this and why wouldn't they. Simple economics. Ethanol won't help because you get hit in the pocket when you buy groceries. Biodiesel has been blocked by the oil companies as well. BD requires methanol which is produced from oil in most instances today.

 

[SKYCHENEY]

Isn't methanol just wood alcohol? How do they make it from petroleum?

 

[chris piazza]

I also burn about 1000 to 1300gal a season. This equates to maybe $1300 more a year in fuel costs. This WILL NOT keep us from enjoying the boat this season, Hell $1300 is a very small percentage of what we spend a year in ownership. However if they lowered it a dollar instead of raising it a dollar I could buy some $2600 electronic gizmo for the bridge to play with......

Chris
Superior Nights 53C

 

[BUSTER]

An old friend of mine was a past VP at Mobil Oil. By his own statements diesel fuel costs less than half as much to produce as gasoline thus doubling the oil companies profit on diesel fuel.

Everyday the news networks carry on about the high price of gas.When did you last hear them talk about the ridiculous price of diesel fuel? Joe Blow doesn't know any better,the entire globe runs on diesel fuel,not gasoline. Trucks,ships,buses,locomotives,many electric power plants...all run on diesel.

While the media has Joe Blow's attention on what it is going to cost to finance running the family's autos next week,the oil companies are putting a stranglehold on the global economy.No one knows,,,,,no one seems to care.

That is the American news media though,always chasing the wrong fox! Tony

 

[Brian Degulis]

I guess for you guys that fish it's more of a problem than those that cruise. I try to do the sames trips and miles and just alot more time and go slower. I guess we could go as fast as we want but 70GPH @ 18kts vrs 15 GPH @ 10.5 kts for me that just doesn't make sense.

Brian

 

[mopester]

I dont know how to link things, but Read this one that someone posted the other day in the sandbar.

Oil or no Oil The largest oil field in the world

I scratch my head wondering why or what?

It drives me crazy that diesel is at its current price. I purposly bought a vw jetta that gets 48 mpg. then it all goes up goes up?? it is still cost effective for now, but i figure some where around 75-1.00 dollar more over gas and it would wash out. I have actually started collecting vegie oil and making small batches of bio!!!

I think i will have a corronary when i actually get my boat back in and use fuel!!!! Or i will be like some of those other "welded to the docks"!!

 

[BUSTER]

I dont know how to link things, but Read this one that someone posted the other day in the sandbar.

Oil or no Oil The largest oil field in the world

I scratch my head wondering why or what?

It drives me crazy that diesel is at its current price. I purposly bought a vw jetta that gets 48 mpg. then it all goes up goes up?? it is still cost effective for now, but i figure some where around 75-1.00 dollar more over gas and it would wash out. I have actually started collecting vegie oil and making small batches of bio!!!

I think i will have a corronary when i actually get my boat back in and use fuel!!!! Or i will be like some of those other "welded to the docks"!!

Be careful with the BIO in the cold weather,it gels quicker than diesel fuel. The CT dot switched a few of the their truck depots to BIO and have been experiencing a lot of gel problems,where diesel was geling at much lower temps.

 

[mtadamek]

Methanol can be made from wood, biomass, coal, oil, and natural gas. Just a simple carbon chain that can be distilled. Most is made from natural gas. Bio runs great in my truck. Ditto on the cold weather, just dilute with diesel. Looking at making some myself, but as I said, Methanol spikes the price up. We are giving subsidies to bio fuel producers up to $1 a gallon. I think it is good, but just more taxes coming out of our pockets to pay for it while the oil & gas companies make more on the methanol used to produce bio and getting the last laugh!!!!

 

[Jaxfishgyd]

We went for a cruise down the St Johns River Sunday and suddenly it hit me....

YES I was buring expensive fuel.... And I was aware of that....

Temp was 78 degress.

But as we passed under the I-295 bridge and looked at all the cars, vans, trucks, semis passing over me.

THEY wish they were in MY SHOES....

Had two semi's blow their horns at us.(OK, grandkids were waving at them).

BUT THE BOTTOM LINE WAS:

Total diesel burned on the trip.... About 30 gals X $3.50= $105
Food and drinks= $ 30
Total fun and enjoyment of family time together= PRICELESS

 

[spartonboat1]

We filled our 36C with gas yesterday at Watch out diesel Hatteras owners, I think the tide is turning on diesel that is cheaper than gas.

Simple econ 101...diesel was always cheaper because 1) it was almost a byproduct and the producers were glad to unload in a sense and 2) demand vs. supply was low. Classic supply/demand curves.

Since the amount of diesel per volume of oil is lower than gasoline (stand to be corrected), when diesel demand rises it requires more oil to produce a given amount of diesel, again prices rise.

Hate to say, but sittin' at the dock of the bay is low cost alternative. But I have kept records and I put far more funds into the gasoline running back and forth to the boat than what the cost of the fuel is per season. But I am a low hours guy and fill up once a season, maybe $600-700/summer. MI summer is Memorial Day to Labor Day, although there are some great days in April and Oct.

out....

 

[SKYCHENEY]

Spartonboat,
I will correct your statement: NORTHERN Michigan boating season is Mem Day to Labor Day. If you would move her further south, you could gain an extra 2 months of boating. I just can't believe how much warmer it is in Whitehall, Grand Haven or Saugatuck than it is in Charlevoix or Cheboygan.

I think part of the problem with diesel prices right now is the fact that the producers and distributors are dealing with too many types of diesel. You've got off-road low sulpher and on-road ultra low sulpher. Not only are they making both products, but they have to store and transport them separately. I imagine that the ULSD also costs more to produce plus the added cost of the lubricity additive.

 

[spartonboat1]

Accelerating global oil depletion rates have climbed to over 4% which erases nearly 4 million barrels per day out of each year's production while high costs and technically challenging fields have left global supply growth vulnerable to project delays.

Coupled with surging demand in developing countries, this depletion and stalled production growth will lead to the global supply of oil to drop by as much as 8 million barrels per day below the US Department of Energy's estimates by 2012.

Look for $150 per barrel of oil by 2012 and a fuel price of $6 per gallon.

India just unveiled a $2500 car and demand for fuel from the developing world will create higher oil prices. Also, many developing countries subsidize the cost of fuel.

Any hope for oil price collapse is wishful thinking because the economics of a very challenging discovery environment make cheaper oil difficult.

As we have noticed last week,when oil prices drop,it takes very little for certain countries to escalate geopolitical tensions to the point that the oil price goes back up.

I just ran some high level numbers and assuming no further finds, such as the two recent deep drill fields (Gulf of Mex and Brazil at 8-9B BBl), it is reported that reserves are at 1.3 trillion barrels. At 4M depletion/day, that is about 900 years of remaining reserves "at current consumption".

There is the old economist law of the "theory of substitution" that when a product or commodity reaches a certain price point, that replacements become economically viable. I am concerned that the US legislatures and others worldwide are mucking with that natural process, viz the subsidizing of ethonal (ugh).

Also the magic key word "GeoPolitical" above. Russia is pushing that button very hard and I am under the impression that the largest oil company is now Chinese (no?).

For me, all the above posts a great extension to the thread...

 

[DeeRow]

The October or November, 2007 National Geographic had biofuels on its cover. I believe that they stated that if all American vehicles were converted to diesel, fuel consumption would drop by 60%. I don't have the article handy so my recollection may be incorrect. But it was clear that they believe that the "energy crisis" would be over by "simply" converting all vehicles to diesel.

Also, I gree with Sky that there are too many blends of fuel. Each state has different blend requirements for gas and diesel. It seems that a change in the energy policy could yield significant gains.

Mark