Economy ???

[CARL GUZMAN]

anyone doing anybetter out there ? or see an end to this madness?

 

[whaler23]

Why, is it keeping you up at night?

 

[CARL GUZMAN]

LOL yes i guess you can say that

 

[SeaEric]

We've had a pretty good year in boat sales on the Chesapeake. We've worked hard for it, but we did OK. I have heard from some guys in Ft Lauderdale that things have improved in the last few weeks. A broker I speak with in the south end of the Chesapeake in Virginia has had a good fall season, but has been quiet for a month or so.

I believe that most of the bad markets are regional. And Carl, where you are in Naples seems particularly hard hit. Geography does seem to matter. I know the Real Estate has got to stay put where it is. But if you can, I would suggest moving your boat to Ft Lauderdale to sell her. I believe that could perhaps make a difference.

Carl, are 30 year fixed rates dropping significantly yet? If it would make sense, I'd like to convert my 5-1 ARM (5.775% 3 yrs left to go) to a 30 yr. fixed.

 

[Trojan]

Hi Carl. Tons of homes for sale I have never seen so many for sale. Three marinas closed in my area and 2 changed hands. In our marina there was only 60% of the slips filled and 50 docks went up for sale. We have 600 plus docks. Lots of boats on the hard. Boats for sale everywhere. With the fuel prices like they are. I can't imagine what next year is going to be like. At all the party islands you never had a problem getting a dock. Was nice for us. No crowds, but even some of my drinking buddies never made it. I'll be in Naples around 12/21. Hope we can get together for lunch and a few drinks. Last time it was a little rushed.

BILL

 

[thoward]

Our issue in this part of Florida is lack of industry. A large part of our economy is based on real estate. The effects are far reaching and are working their way up. We are now seeing the developers go belly up. I read the R/E sales are back to 1997 levels. Too many folks were watching 'flip this house' and that ran the prices up. It looks like a good time to invest in R/E and hopefully things will turn back up after the election.

 

[SKYCHENEY]

Real estate is slow in Michigan as well. Unemployment here just hit 7.7% which is almost double the national average. Despite that, the marina that we stay in was full last summer except for just a handful of slips. While traveling in July, we ran into many of our dock neighbors at ports that were in excess of 100nm from our marina. I also know of several people who have purchased boats in the past couple of months. Some people are spending, but only on selected items. Farmers are doing well here with all of the new ethanol plants and a factory that makes military vehicles has also added on, but most other markets are way down.

Hang in there, Carl. Things will improve. 2008 is an election year after all. I will be on Marco Island again this coming Feb. Maybe we can get together for drinks or lunch or something. I'll keep you posted.

 

[Passages]

It looks like a good time to invest in R/E and hopefully things will turn back up after the election.

Really? I read we have not yet hit bottom.

Election or not, I believe there is enough uncertainty in the economy where we will not see a significant bounce. If we do, I think it will be short lived.

I'm considering FL retirement property. I'll be working for another 12 years but I'm thinking there may be another cycle of boom & bust during that time. Just not sure how to play that one. My gut is telling me to hold on to my cash.

 

[Passages]

ps: to the above - I'll hold on to my cash unless I find that screaming deal on a new 45-53 Hatt, Viking or Post. I can't go another season boatless.

 

[CARL GUZMAN]

When you guys are down call me for a beer it will be fun if I still have the boat well do a cruies? SeaEric I think rates may drop some more but not sure when you should pull the triger watching the 10yr bond usually helps .
Bottom is still out there ?
my Marina also sold this month?

 

[Passages]

Bottom is still out there ?

I don't know...kind of like trying to time the stock market. No one calls it right all the time.

No doubt, there's some good deals in FL Real Estate now. But compared to what? 2 years ago or 10 years ago? Is there a site somewhere that shows median home prices over time for specific counties? Should I buy now?

 

[krush]

quick answer, NOPE. Hold on for the (not good) ride

edit: I also believe real estate in the bubble areas has a LONG way to go down still.

People can't get loans. The subprime toxic waste is spread all over the financial system.

Genesis is on vacation, he always has good insight though.

 

[gottatanfl]

Had our home on the market for 6 months, she is marketed at $60,000 below appraised value...Not one Bite!!!

We want to move aboard our hat and hoped with the sell of our home we could finish the restore/repower. Doesnt look like it will happen any time soon.

Our business is down 6% this year over last and about 8% total over the last 3 years.

Boat slips are scarce here, but we are getting a new 50 slip marina, Summer of 2008. It will have clubhouse, pumpouts, gas, diesel. Will also have enlosed dry dock available. This as well as a few other businesses due to come in next year may help us a little.....HOPEFULL

 

[Finalee]

Here in Tidewater Virginia we have a 12 month supply of homes. A balanced market has 6 months. Local builders are deciding to take the hit in 2007 and lower prices. Friends in the Loan business are Optimistic, prequall volume has picked up in the last 30 days. Being a Realestate Broker I think we are turning a corner here too. The inventory was 15 months . Suzie Orman said on the Today show Thursday that it is a good time to buy. Tidewater is one of the ones stabalizing.

 

[Red Hatt]

I think the slow down is just getting started. It wil be about two years before we come out of this mess. Thanks in part to Mr. greenspan. The used hatteras market along with viking and etc. will continue to be slow with good deals out there. Eric could tell us the % off from list to sold price. I bet its 25 to 35% off list.

 

[Passages]

The broker I talk to frequently say he's been busy as heck selling boats for the past 3 weeks - but not at prices that make the sellers happy.

The 4 weeks prior to that however - business was dead.

 

[SeaEric]

Eric could tell us the % off from list to sold price. I bet its 25 to 35% off list.

Selling prices seem to be down 20 to 30% in general. Motivaed seller are selling. Owners that are upside down in a boat loan are letting them go to repo, or are making the paymants and waiting (for what I don't know).

Greenspan needs to do what retired folks do- GO FISHING and stay off the darned TV!

 

[krush]

Suzie Orman said on the Today show Thursday that it is a good time to buy. Tidewater is one of the ones stabalizing.

When do those people (especially the NAR) ever say it ISN'T a good time to buy?

If you base your financial decisions of info you get from mainstream media, you are most likely in for a hurting. If you disagree, well then by all means keep listening to that moron Cramer on CNBC....

 

[SKYCHENEY]

Cramer is right on his stock picks about 50% of the time. Of course, it has been proven that a monkey throwing darts can also pick the winners about 50% of the time. And......the monkey is not nearly as annoying.

 

[Trojan]

I look to 3-5 years before we hit bottom and the year 4 is going to be a real BIT-H. Nothing in the likes that we have seen. Maybe sooner. Sorry, unless there is another war. Which they are working on. IT SUCKS. This one time I hope I'm wrong.


BILL