Economy ???

[Paul45c]

The American economy (and by extension its people) can adjust to just about any set of circumstances -- it always has and probably always will. It's the quick big shocks that are so disruptive and make so many think they have to pack up the wagons, load up the ammo and head for the bunkers in the hills. Oil has almost doubled in 2 years. That's a huge shock not just for us, but for the whole world. Yet I bet we'll be assimilating whatever level it settles out to for say the next 5 yr. average price better and quicker than any other nation.

We've had a lot of shocks recently -- storm-driven big increases in insurance premiums, very high fuel spikes, the banking turmoil, devaluation of the dollar from the interest rate tinkering (and underlying mortgage-related weakness in the economy), etc. That's a lot to have fall on us at pretty much the same time. We're talking all of that shoehorned into about a 2 yr. period. Personally, I'm surprised none of you have taken note of ALL of that incredible stuff and remarked on how well the economy has done in spite of it all. Talk about resiliency! We'll take it in stride, and the chances of that many challenges coming our way that quickly in the future are pretty slim. I see good things ahead.

Here in this Florida boating capital, I can tell you Sky is onto something -- there's still a buttload of boats out here! And they're being used. Maybe some are using them less, but there's plenty of activity. I'd say that means some have already adjusted to the higher prices. Hey, if you've got to decide between 600 gals of diesel and, say, painting a part of the house the admiral's been nagging you about, there's no question...BUY THE DIESEL AND GO BOATING!

 

[Maynard Rupp]

Real estate is slow in Michigan as well. Unemployment here just hit 7.7% which is almost double the national average. Despite that, the marina that we stay in was full last summer except for just a handful of slips. While traveling in July, we ran into many of our dock neighbors at ports that were in excess of 100nm from our marina. I also know of several people who have purchased boats in the past couple of months. Some people are spending, but only on selected items. Farmers are doing well here with all of the new ethanol plants and a factory that makes military vehicles has also added on, but most other markets are way down.

Hang in there, Carl. Things will improve. 2008 is an election year after all. I will be on Marco Island again this coming Feb. Maybe we can get together for drinks or lunch or something. I'll keep you posted.

Hey Sky...WQe are going to live on our Hat this winter and will spend from 2/23 until 3/23 in Ft. Meyers Beach at Moss marine. maybe we can swap lies during that time.

 

[garyd]

I've been so busy haven't had time to reply to about anything. We are in a off cycle business. When others are screaming it's bad we do well when they are buying steaks I'm cooking Hot Dogs, etc..

So things are really busy and we are growing.

I see the futrue in a somewhat different light. Since we were at say zero americans in 1492 and say 150 million in 1962 then it took about 470 years to go from zero to 150 million. Well we are beyond 300 million now let's just say it took 50 years to add 150 million from 150 million. Don't ya just know than 300 million frickin americans can do a lot better than that last 50 years.

So lets say just for fun that 300 million americans can begat 150 million more americans in what 30 years. Well we are going to need a lot of houses, boats, cars, schools, Wendy's, Mcdonalds, strip malls and did I say boats.

Prepare for the next big boom it's just around the corner ya might be a few bumps in the road but we will add that many americans over the next 30-40 years at least!

Buy american if possible and open the borders to people that want to get ahead and assimilate into our culture. You know like your ancestors and mine did. We need them now and in the future. It has been and will always remain necessary for us to be a great Nation.

garyd

 

[Maynard Rupp]

They are corrupt before they get there. The best we can hope for is to keep changing them every election so they can't have too much influence. Don't re-elect anybody. Put in a new crook every time. I always vote against incumbents, unless the other guy is a fruit cake. We desperately need a third party that represents normal people. The fringe wacko elements of our society have taken over the two existing political parties. 15% on the left, 70% normal, 15% on the right. Where do you fit? Neither party deals with the real issues. We (those without real representation) could do write in candidates and take over. The problem is getting everyone to show up and vote. So the active wackos will continue to rule, until we get off our butts and change it. Ready yet? I am.

I just saw a video of a Republican debate and was very impressed with the honesty of Mike Huckabee. Maybe a refreshing change. Mit Romney also sounds good to me. The rest of the candidates from either party sound and act like mainstreem crooks.

 

[Trojan]

Do to the splurge in electronics we do have better things to toy with and new type jobs and better TVs, electronics, dirt bikes, speed boats and race cars. I was 7 years old before I ever saw a TV an 8 inch black and white. But who's going to buy these things in the future when there are no decent paying jobs. We need to eat. We all can't be in electronics. My boat will probably rot on the shore before I sell it and it may turn into a water front cottage. It is quite obvious that there are some people here that don't know what the term living good means. Most people live pay check to pay check. If you don't know we have poor people in this country you had better get out of that yacht club and take a walkabout. Go visit the unemployment building. What did Teddy R say, I think it was, A chicken in every pot. Great. What's it now? A lobster in every pot.. If anybody thinks the economy is stable and growing. You have never been through a recession or depression. Or lived through the times leading up to it. Very few people don't have a mortgage. I have a mortgage, I have a car payment. No credit card debt, my boat is paid for and 9 cell phones. But I still worry whether my holdings are safe. I hope I have learned something about living but trying to figure out what I will do should the well go dry is a real trying question. Being disabled and retired with 6 children I need to have some sort of income plan. I was a $150 grand BLUE collar worker. But it doesnt help me today. I was a union and non union engineer in many fields. I know both sides. If you were never a factory rat or never in a union You have a lot to learn and should not comment on it. I have lots of friends in the factories and today they earn there money. Just being an engineer does not guarantee you a good pay. The people doing my old job are lucky to make $55 grand. The trend today is to let go the old knowledge people and hire the fresh school kids at half the cost. It's going to bit them in the butt. You can't buy the knowledge and machining skills or acquired skills that a seasoned engineer, mechanic or electrican has. Only time will tell.

 

[Maynard Rupp]

I've been so busy haven't had time to reply to about anything. We are in a off cycle business. When others are screaming it's bad we do well when they are buying steaks I'm cooking Hot Dogs, etc..

So things are really busy and we are growing.

I see the futrue in a somewhat different light. Since we were at say zero americans in 1492 and say 150 million in 1962 then it took about 470 years to go from zero to 150 million. Well we are beyond 300 million now let's just say it took 50 years to add 150 million from 150 million. Don't ya just know than 300 million frickin americans can do a lot better than that last 50 years.

So lets say just for fun that 300 million americans can begat 150 million more americans in what 30 years. Well we are going to need a lot of houses, boats, cars, schools, Wendy's, Mcdonalds, strip malls and did I say boats.

Prepare for the next big boom it's just around the corner ya might be a few bumps in the road but we will add that many americans over the next 30-40 years at least!

Buy american if possible and open the borders to people that want to get ahead and assimilate into our culture. You know like your ancestors and mine did. We need them now and in the future. It has been and will always remain necessary for us to be a great Nation.

garyd

The problem in our area is that the folks that are having kids are the ones that can least afford to raise them, and in most cases could care less about how they are raised. My wife volunteers at a local hospital. She works in the neo-natal special care unit. The have an incredible number of newborns that are born addicted to bad drugs. They also see most of the new babies being turned over to state agencies. So increasing the USA population using the methods that are happening in Detroit, and I wll bet most other cities as well, is counterproductive.

 

[Maynard Rupp]

Wow...What a great group of very well informed and interesting folks we have here. It is very interesting and most informative to read all of your great thoughts and comments. I share many of your opinions. I have moved all my holdings to cash and bond funds, but I am itching to go back to equities. I just have to be more conservative as I am retired and have to protect my holdings somewhat. I think we will bounce back fine. Do read "the world is flat". We are now in a world economy and the guy that can make the best product or supply the best service will get the work; no borders on that though. I think all will be good unless we elect Hillary or Oboma. That will cause an economic disaster. ( I want my smiles back too, Carl).

 

[garyd]

Maynard, relax babe it will be o.k. Funny I grew up dirt poor as did many on this forum and we got through. I remember reading that the founder of G.E. made a $1.00 a week but he founded one of the great companies of our time.

It will all work out. The liberals that think they will save all the bad by giving them everything they cry for will run out of money and then things will get better.

Michigan is getting what it deserves in many ways. Use to live there heard over and over from all the U.A.W. workers how they got paid tons of money for doing as little as possible. Saw the Dems raise taxes and just give it away to anyone that played the "woah is me" card. There are some good to great jobs around the country but they just stay in Michigan and Ohio and cry.

For all the babies you see that are in bad shape let me tell you I see lots of good kids doing good things all the time from new borns to high school. This is a geat country and it will survive and grow beyond our expectations. Don't let anyone tell you different and don't lose hope.

garyd

 

[Maynard Rupp]

Maybe the secret to keeping the faith is to stay as far as possible from Detroit. Most German cities were in better physical shape after WW II than Detroit is right now. A friend of mine was "car jacked" last week. The overloaded Detroit police provided him with a number to use for his insurance claim. They also asked him if the robber had a real gun or a toy!! WHAT is going on here!

 

[Boss Lady]

The reason wages are on a downward trend is that we have more people seeking work than there is work to do. When the cell phone industry was doing the build out, RF engineers commanded salaries paid by the highest bidder, most were paid $125K to $150K, then the bottom fell out and you may get $45K to $55k today for the exact same job. That is what happened to me. Also HB2 visas, flooded the available engineer pool with Indian and Pakistanis who would work for the lower wages. Illegal immigration has driven down wages for many blue collar workers, 15 million illegals are working somewhere. The law of supply and demand forces down wages. Like I said before, neither political party has the american worker's best interest at heart. The republicans take care of business, the democrats take care of the bleeding hearts and freeloaders. We normal people get screwed by both of them.

Detriot is in serious trouble. Corporate and the Unions deserve each other. I predict that within 10 years Ford, GM and Chrysler will not exist. Corporate does not get it, when it comes to what customers want, and the unions will strangle them holding on to what they have until they kill the companies. It is unrealistic to expect business to pay inflated wages for work that can be done by someone for less with the same skills. If GM opens a manufacturing plant in say South Carolina and the people there are willing to work for $10 an hour, why is that a problem? Because the Unions are nothing more than a protection racket today. Once upon a time, unions provided needed reforms in the work place. We now have OSHA, and a multitude of laws that have virtually made Unions obsolete. Just remember that Government Civil Service workers have a Union and we all know how "efficient" the government is.

 

[SKYCHENEY]

Hey Sky...WQe are going to live on our Hat this winter and will spend from 2/23 until 3/23 in Ft. Meyers Beach at Moss marine. maybe we can swap lies during that time.

That sounds great, Maynard. I'll look you up when we get down there.

 

[Brian Degulis]

Do to the splurge in electronics we do have better things to toy with and new type jobs and better TVs, electronics, dirt bikes, speed boats and race cars. I was 7 years old before I ever saw a TV an 8 inch black and white. But who's going to buy these things in the future when there are no decent paying jobs. We need to eat. We all can't be in electronics. My boat will probably rot on the shore before I sell it and it may turn into a water front cottage. It is quite obvious that there are some people here that don't know what the term living good means. Most people live pay check to pay check. If you don't know we have poor people in this country you had better get out of that yacht club and take a walkabout. Go visit the unemployment building. What did Teddy R say, I think it was, A chicken in every pot. Great. What's it now? A lobster in every pot.. If anybody thinks the economy is stable and growing. You have never been through a recession or depression. Or lived through the times leading up to it. Very few people don't have a mortgage. I have a mortgage, I have a car payment. No credit card debt, my boat is paid for and 9 cell phones. But I still worry whether my holdings are safe. I hope I have learned something about living but trying to figure out what I will do should the well go dry is a real trying question. Being disabled and retired with 6 children I need to have some sort of income plan. I was a $150 grand BLUE collar worker. But it doesnt help me today. I was a union and non union engineer in many fields. I know both sides. If you were never a factory rat or never in a union You have a lot to learn and should not comment on it. I have lots of friends in the factories and today they earn there money. Just being an engineer does not guarantee you a good pay. The people doing my old job are lucky to make $55 grand. The trend today is to let go the old knowledge people and hire the fresh school kids at half the cost. It's going to bit them in the butt. You can't buy the knowledge and machining skills or acquired skills that a seasoned engineer, mechanic or electrican has. Only time will tell.

It's the economy
It's corperate greed
It's because not enough people worked as factory rats
It's because not enough people had union jobs
Employers don't know true talent
Not enough people visit the un employment building
It's the stock market

What about the Russians can't you find some blaim for them?

Yes there are poor people in this country and a few very few fall on hard times because of some trully un forseen circumstance. For the remaining 99.9% of the population your current situation be it good or bad is simply the sum total of the decisions you have made. So if you truly want to know who's to blame look in the mirror 99.9% of the time that's the bastard that's screwing you.

Brian

 

[Trojan]

Brian you must be one of the independently rich people that never had to work. You sound like a corporate person. Loosing your job because of foreign trade is not something YOU choose. Finding another job that pays a living wage is still harder today. 99% bad choice. I don't think so. Is loosing your home a bad choice. 7.7 % unemployment, an all time high and that's only the people that still qualify for unemployment or still remain on the books. What happened to the people that it ran out on and still don't have jobs? The automotive factory jobs average around $14. bucks an hour now. the old mainframe companies are still near $18. bucks an hour.The unions have all given up something in there last contract. They to have seen the light. Quality work in not a US problem. We have always had quality companies. You call China products quality. It's the rich A holes that greed for more money until they have so much that they dump there company and live off the fat of the land. There are more millionaires now than ever before. Greed is the culprit of this countries delima. It starts right in our government fat cat offices. Not bad choices. Sure we will survive but at what cost. Very few people live in actual Detroit proper. Crime is everywhere. This country soon will not be able to stand on its own if it continues on the same path. Brian I don't buy the crap that your trying to sell. We are not the bastard in the mirror. You know who they are.

BILL

 

[Passages]

What's the real issue here? It's change. Change in the US and global economy. Change has always been with us. It's the rate of change we've seen since early 2001 that really has us in a tither. Change removes us from our comfort zone.

We are seeing a number of financial market corrections at the moment. I agree that it will likely take a year or more for things to unwind. Bonds and gold are likely a good hedge at the moment. (Avoid cash - CD's and the like -because there may be some upcoming gamesmanship which will further devalue the dollar)

I have to also agree with the optimist on this thread. Those who can adapt to the new market dynamics will thrive. Those who stubbornly cling to the old ways will not fare as well.

There's been much talk of the debt we are carrying. Personally, I've always believe it's better to control other peoples money as long as the following formula is maintained:

TAX ADJUSTED LOAN INTEREST < INFLATION RATE + TAX ADJUSTED BANK INTEREST ON CASH ACCOUNTS.

I could pay off my car & credit cards, but both are at 3.5% interest. My home mortgage is fixed at 5.24% and deductable. Both fit within the above equation.

 

[labrador]

Bill, I have a mfg business and lived in N.J. all my life. It got too expensive for me to remain in that area. The company would not have been able to make it if I had remained there. I moved the company to a lower cost area N.C. Did I want to leave family and friends? No but due to the business climate I had to go. There are jobs for people out there if they get off their asses and either move to the areas where the jobs are or look harder in their back yards. The unions in N.J. forced the wages up so high I had no choice. I employ 25 people however I'm no fat cat. Your boat is larger than mine and I'm the "business owner" who's out to screw the workers! Yes I have a mortgage and car payment too. What I also have is my signature at the bank pledging my house, boat, and everything else I own so that my employees get paid every week whether we make money or not! I'm over 50 and was comfortable where I was however I had to go or go broke. Was it scary? YES however had to be done. Guess what, best thing I have ever done even if the business doesn't work out! Never would have known if I didn't try.

 

[Brian Degulis]

Brian you must be one of the independently rich people that never had to work. You sound like a corporate person. Loosing your job because of foreign trade is not something YOU choose. Finding another job that pays a living wage is still harder today. 99% bad choice. I don't think so. Is loosing your home a bad choice. 7.7 % unemployment, an all time high and that's only the people that still qualify for unemployment or still remain on the books. What happened to the people that it ran out on and still don't have jobs? The automotive factory jobs average around $14. bucks an hour now. the old mainframe companies are still near $18. bucks an hour.The unions have all given up something in there last contract. They to have seen the light. Quality work in not a US problem. We have always had quality companies. You call China products quality. It's the rich A holes that greed for more money until they have so much that they dump there company and live off the fat of the land. There are more millionaires now than ever before. Greed is the culprit of this countries delima. It starts right in our government fat cat offices. Not bad choices. Sure we will survive but at what cost. Very few people live in actual Detroit proper. Crime is everywhere. This country soon will not be able to stand on its own if it continues on the same path. Brian I don't buy the crap that your trying to sell. We are not the bastard in the mirror. You know who they are.

BILL

INDEPENDANTLY WEALTHY CORPERATE GUY? Wow your just about always wrong but this time your so wrong you have crossed the border into ga ga land. Un like you I don't have a degree in anything I don't even have a high school diploma and I certainly didn't grow up privileged. But I have two things you will never have. The sense to see things as they are and the willingness to do whatever I need to do to get where I want to be. And I'm not at all unique there are millions of people in this country that see it as a place of limitless opportunity and understand that they control they're own destiny. Instead of looking at people living paycheck to paycheck or people that in your words got screwed out of they're jobs and using them as examples of how the little guy can't make it. Why don't you take a look at the millions of little guys that do make it and ask yourself what are they doing that I'm not. On some level I feel bad for you a person that believes that every bump in the road is caused by outside forces that they can't control must feel pretty helpless. A person that excepts responsibility for his own well being enjoys an independence and freedom that those who don't will never know.

Brian

 

[labrador]

Kudo's Brian!!!!!!!!!

 

[DeeRow]

...snip..
On some level I feel bad for you a person that believes that every bump in the road is caused by outside forces that they can't control must feel pretty helpless. A person that excepts responsibility for his own well being enjoys an independence and freedom that those who don't will never know.

Brian

Brian, I tried to write a response like this, but failed miserably, so I didn't post it. You said better than anybody else!

Bill, you need to change course! There are opportunities for you. You just need to find them. Widen your search. Change your attidude and your demeanor. You make refences to God in some of your posts. He's got a plan for you and I doubt strongly that involves as much hate and discontent that you have been posting here. Hang in, something good will come from this.

Mark

 

[the kuz]

What a great group of people here. Shouldn't be surprized though - most all are smart enough to own a Hatteras. Although I'm bullish on America, I'm sure enjoying/learning from all the view points shared here. No doubt credit/real estate corrections, fuel prices, global Jihad, and rapid social/cultural, economic, and tecnological changes can adversly impact the folks and the economy/country as a whole. People would be wise to find a way/try too protect themselves. From my viewpoint most (not all) of the change has been good. I feel bad for people who have worked a lifetime in many traditional industries (auto, manufacturing, textiles, etc.) and now must adjust to circumsances and changes well beyond their control. The classic example was the buggy whip business, but now so many products/industries become obsolete so rapidly that it is a much bigger problem. The dynamics of change are such that 10% of the people relish change, 10% don't cope well at all and most find it uncomfortable, so it's not surprising to see the range of reactions posted here. Change is not easy, but it sure does provide opportunities for those who can/will adapt.

Just for some perspective, my grandfather never finised grade school and had to work for a month to earn enough to buy a good set of carpenter's chisels. My dad worked two jobs just to pay for the basics and my mother went back to work to help pay expenses for the fiirst kid in the family to ever go college (me). I started working at 13 for .15c/hr, and am now retired retired with a boat I could only dream about as a young man. Don't tell me things are not getting better. My experience is the norm not the exception. The pattern is still repeating especially with 1st and 2nd generation Americans. Anyone really believe they are worse off economically than their parents or grandparents?

WRT the vanishing middle class, that is also a myth. This country flirted with anarchy, communism and suffered violant political and labor uprisings in the late 1800s because so much of the wealth was concentrated in the hands of so few (remember "robber barons", company stores, monoplies/trusts, etc.?). The trend from then until now has been a flatening of the income distribution curve. We actually have a lot to thank the unions for, and in a perverse way also the growth of government and progressive taxation. Governments don't survive very long when too big a percentage of the folks are exploited and oppressed. We don't live in a perfect system, but it is the best, most successful so far.

Bob (still bullish on America) K

 

[Passages]

Anyone really believe they are worse off economically than their parents or grandparents?

This thread is becoming addicting. Good banter even for those with an unpopular position.

Kuz quote above says a lot. My standand of living and that of my siblings far exceeds that of our parents. My father had a good job as a manufacturing manager for GE. Mom stayed at home. We were comforable but certaintly not affluent.

Perhaps it's the expectations that have changed. Driven by media advertizing or just plain selfish greed. Don't know. But I do know that even in the good old days, people worried about money, their kids and the future.

Anyone remember the 1960's? (If you do you weren't there, LOL) Seriously, can you say the rate of change then was less than today? Do you recall that through the 1980's there was a little country called the USSR that had fueled, armed ICBM's constantly pointing at Main St. USA? Think about it, $4/gallon fuel, stock market jitters and al Queda pale in comparision to global destruction of the planet. Just keep that in mind when you wistfully long for the good old days.

There may be some pain, but we'll get through this.