Re the preceding comment:
"if the media is going overboard on this massive Gulf spill and drawing attention to the problem... I say. good for them!"
To that I suggest:
The ends do not justify the means.
My father used to say, “ If a person will lie to you, he will steal from you.”
Lying is simply dishonest and corrupting. How does one justify a concerted series of untruths?
I have lived on the Mississippi Sound and worked and/or played in the Gulf since the early 1960’s, and am personally very interested the spill and its impact. Since 4/20 I have spent too much time reading reports and stories about the spill and attempting to fact check.
My experience to date with oil spill reports has been that every claimed fact, which I have read or heard and struck me as significant, except one, was simply false. There is a report of reduced Oxygen level measured by a Sea Grant agency at one area in the Gulf, South of Mobile Bay, which appears credible. Otherwise misrepresentation, to my observation, has been the rule.
Perhaps at the core, is a pervading media representation that the total oil spilled into the gulf from DWH amounts to an average of 58,000 bbl per day since 4/20. The only basis for that estimate is a worst case scenario, which has not occurred. No one knows the amount which has leaked and estimates are difficult. I have watched the ROV feeds almost daily, studied the position of the riser and the equipment used to catch the oil coming from the riser and the measured amounts captured. From 4/20 through about 6/2 when the riser was cut at the BOP, the riser was kinked (much like an old garden hose) and oil leaked from the end of the riser and from 2 cracks at the kinks. A tool was inserted in the end of the riser, which tool captured and measured the oil escaping from end of the riser until the riser was cut and capped. Per BP: “In the period from 17 to 23 May, the daily oil rate collected by the RITT ranged from 1,360 barrels of oil per day (b/d) to 3,000 b/d, and the daily gas rate ranged from 4 million cubic feet per day (MMCFD) to 17 MMCFD.
The most recent LMRP oil/gas collection data is: “On June 25, total oil recovered was approx. 24,550 barrels: approx. 16,340 barrels of oil were collected, approx. 8,210 barrels of oil were flared, and approx. 54.5 million cubic feet of natural gas were flared.
Leaking from the DWH site is a cloud of oil, gas and water. Note that inside the current cloud is a 4-ft diameter cap, the sides of which are occasionally visible. Based upon the above information regarding oil gas recovery, the average ratio from the LMRPis 2,220 cubic feet of gas for every barrel of oil. Converting bbl of oil to cubic feet based upon 42 gal/bbl and 7.48 gal/CF, the ration is 395 CF gas per CF of oil. Keep in mind that these measurements are at sea level and the gas in the cloud at the BOP is under the pressure of 5000 ft of water.
After looking at videos and considering the above, I suggest that a fair estimate of the unrestricted flow from the cut riser would be about 30,000 bbl per day. However that rate occurred only for less than 2 days, after the riser was cut and before the riser cap was put in place. Looking at the flow from the end of the riser and the kink/crack before the riser was cut and considering that the high capture rate from the end of the riser was 3,000 bbl / day it seems reasonable to estimate that the oil leaking before the riser was cut was less than 10,000 bbl / day.
Assuming a restricted flow of 10,000 bbl / day from 4/20 to 6/2 and an unrestricted flow of 30,000 bbl /day from 6/2 through 6/25 the total flow through the BOP since 4/20 would be 1,120,000 bbl of which 413,000 bbl was captured before it leaked into the Gulf. Thus my estimated total leakage of oil is less than 707,000 bbl over 66 days.
On the other hand a popularly reported media estimate amounts to over 4,000,000 bbl spilled during that same 66 days.
http://www.wlox.com/Global/category.asp?C=186625 The media figure as of this moment is over 170,925,000 gallons which is over 4,008,000 bbl. The media estimate is 5.67 times greater than mine is, and I’ve “shown my work”, they do not. Why?
Regarding the release of oil in the water, Relative contribution of average, annual releases (1990-1999) of petroleum hydrocarbons (in kilotonnes) from natural seeps and activities associated with the extraction, transportation, and consumption of crude oil or refined products to the marine environment.
N American Marine Waters
Natural Seeps 160 Extraction of Petroleum 3 Transport of Petroleum 9.1
Consumption of Petroleum 84
Total 256.1
Thus in North American Marine Water from 1990-1999, spills from extraction (oil rigs) was 1% of the total and natural seeps 62%.
http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10388&page=29
see also:
http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/oceanography-book/oilspills.htm
IN SUMMARY
I submit that more damage has been caused by these misrepresentations than the spill itself. Based upon credible data rather than incredible stories, the damage to the Gulf from the oil, which has and is leaking is in my estimation quite limited and primarily cosmetic. Like the natural seepage the Gulf can handle it. On the other hand I do not know that we can handle the economic and political consequences of shutting down 33 deepwater rigs, greatly increased domestic offshore oil production costs or a blatant $20 billion extortion.
Reference:
ROV live feed and archives
http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9033572&contentId=7062605
Archive video of oil/gas flow from the end of the riser before the RITT was installed
http://bp.concerts.com/gom/rov_crater_withRITT.htm
Archive video of oil/gas flow from the crack at the riser just above the BOP
http://bp.concerts.com/gom/rov_riserkink.htm
Interesting video of the vessels on site
http://bp.concerts.com/gom/discoverenterprise_25052010.htm
RITT data:
http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9033657&contentId=7062142
Videos which show LMRP including views of the 4-ft diameter cap
http://bp.concerts.com/gom/enterprisetopcap060610.htm
http://bp.concerts.com/gom/subsea_staging_area.htm
Animation of riser cut for LMRP
http://bp.concerts.com/gom/riser_cut_explained.htm
