Tropical Storm Florida

[Gina Marie]

For all the folks that have their vessel and their homes in the path of this storm coming at us Thursday and Friday be safe. We are ridding it out in the Keys. Be safe GinaMarie/Tom

 

[Passages]

Is it my imagination or is Florida getting beat up by storms more in the last 3 years than in the previous 30? I've had family down there since the 60's and never remember it this bad. Is this the Global Warming thing at work?

I might need to rethink my dream of retiring and living aboard in Florida.

You guys down south - be safe...

 

[Gina Marie]

Your right, I moved to Florida the year Andrew came through and not another storm until last year where we had two of them coming through Palm Beach. Now this. All in all its still the best place to live if you like sun,water and boating 12 months non stop We luv it. Gina Marie/Tom

 

[double eagle]

my 2 cents
we have been going to fla for 30 plus yrs...
folks have lived there for 31 yrs....
we have had the boat since 1993...just after andrew
I think there is just more news coverage
fyi....all the rain replentishes the water sheds and flushes the everglades
in very dry yrs the water gets over stagnant from runoff and fertilizer...
the rain is good
looks like the keys will get miised again ....whew....
bill
double eagle...marathon

 

[Genesis]

Re: Tropical Storm Florida - BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

Be extremely careful guys.

One of the models (the GFDL) has this biatch tracking OFFSHORE down into the Keys and then into the gulf as a rapidly deepening storm.

If that model verifies anyone running south to get away from this beast could find themselves in the maw of a Cat3 with their escape routes - by both land the water - all cut off.

If you see movement south of due west from this storm in the next 24 hours, secure your boat wherever it is as best you can and get the he|| out of there! The GFDL's last run places this storm roughly ENE of Key Largo in 24 hours.

Note that the NHC's 11 PM discussion references this model and the possibility of it verifying - and their concern over what it would mean if it does. I've been watching that model for the last two days and while it has been trending east it has continued to insist that Katrina will not go ashore and across the peninsula, but rather will rake the coastline essentially following Hawk Channel and then come into the gulf, deepening all the way.

I am paying extremely close attention to the path of this thing, as if that path was to verify the likely impact on the gulf coast a couple of days later could easily rival Camille......

Note that the GFDL has been doing pretty good this year - it is one of the dynamical models and tends to outperform the older numerical ones such as the LBAR and BAM.

Let's hope that model is wrong - PAY CLOSE ATTENTION!

I want both you and your boats to be ok - but in the extreme case the boat can be replaced - you can't!

 

[Pascal]

so far so good, it's not getting it's act together very rapidly so unless it stalls and churns over the gulf stream, it shoudlnt' be any thing major.

news sensationalism and crappy building constructions are the problem.. not global warming. there is no excuse for structures to fail at even 120mph... unfortunately, I don't think mobile homes qualify as structures... stick and nail homes either.

Dinner Key Marina is pretty well sheltered, it will take 100 mph for water to come over the spoil islands and flatten the trees.. andrew did it... obvously.

i saw the reference to the GFDL, it's always possible.. but so unlikely. forecast has shifted jsut a tad north... to 26.2 instead of 26. 0.2deg is nothing but it's better than - 0.2

 

[Genesis]

Be VERY wary.

Looking at the Miami Radar at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml motion has slowed to almost nothing and she is jogging SW. If that continues you're going to get pasted as the storm will stay very close to if not entirely offshore and come through in the upper Keys!

This is the nightmare scenario for a lot of people, because in addition to the fact that nobody has made an evac call for the Keys and the window is rapidly closing (you don't want to send people into the maw of a Cat 2+ storm) it means that she'll get into the gulf without being disrupted by a major interaction with land. At this point I'm not sure they CAN issue an evac call for the Keys, as it takes at least 24 hours to get people out of there, and where would they go? All roads out go through Miami... which looks to be in the direct line of fire.

The GFDL track has shifted east to between Appalachicola and PCB as of the morning runs, BUT that model still insists on that SW track. The near-stall of forward motion in the latest radar images is very bad.

Be careful over there....... hope she gets moving and doesn't stall and sit over the Gulfstream, as that would allow very rapid intensification.

 

[Traveler 45C]

I really think that the reason we here in Fl. are getting all of these storms is because I now own a boat… Sorry.

After I looked at the forecast track this morning, I felt that for us here in Pensacola it would be a non-issue. Now however, Genesis has got me nervous again…

 

[Genesis]

Note that the NHC's 11 AM advisory has a HUGE error window in it.

This is because they just plain don't know where the hell this thing is going, and until they do they're going to hedge their bets.

 

[Pascal]

it takes 24 to 36 hours to evac the keys... way to late... they usually take the decision 2 to 3 days ahead of landfall...

conditions are going downhill here in miami, rain, wind .. nothign dramatic but with radios and TVs making a big stink out of it... dowtown miami is tunring into a ghost town.

i look at trends from one forecast to the next... they've been pretty focused to far with just minor corrections, the last one a very small shift northward...

i just hope that it keeps moving... it's only 55mph away now...

these things are always jogging around a little, they never go straight... especailly when they're not well defined, although this one is getting its act together.

interesting, 10:24 recon has the pressure down to 990, that's apretty big drop from 997... winds will be close to hur strength by the 2pm...

 

[Genesis]

Yep - 990 is strong tropical storm strength, drop a bit more and you've got a Cat 1. If you look at the Miami radar the convection is wrapping around the northwest quadrant - once she gets entirely closed off she could bomb bigtime.

Hope the forward speed keeps up so there's no time for it....

 

[Pascal]

wind's picked up bit... but nothing major...it's wobbled a bit south so it's a little closer, i guess we're going to be 20/25 miles from the official center. no big deal... windows are rattling, boat's rocking, so far no leaks

FTL just had 53G64 ... miami 23G38 although opa locka just 6 miles north of MIA had 37G58

 

[solanderi]

I think I know what Genesis meant by a Spider Web, because that is what the Hat Time looks like riding it out at the Miami Beach Marina. We just lost our cockpit sunshade in a 70's plus gust.....not pretty. Overall though we are still hanging. Good luck to everyone out there.

 

[Pascal]

past 2 hours were a little rougher... better now, there will be another band in a little while...

no power in the marina or buildings around. runnign on the inverter for now...

Lost 2 big seat cushions up on the bridge... had to re tie the dinghy.. that was wild... it as lifting against the rear railing, causing some damage to the railing... it was a little flimsy and on the to do list anyway...

should have taken the sat dish earlier but forgot. fought in the wind to get it off the followmeTV, hope that didn't get damaged but it probably did. bunch of seams have ripped on the aft deck enclosure.

I don't know how bad the wind was... but it was pretty bad. i could feel the rain stinging thru a heavy rain jacket and my pants were being ripped down! couldn't stand on the flybrige. the wind was coming from the south (boat is tied facing north) so strong that it was leaking thru the saloon doors, between the glass and the teak. i discovered a bunch of leaks i didn't about all over the boat! need to get the shop vac out and dry the carpets!

dozens of boats have lost biminis, sails, etc.. i adjusted lines on a buynch of boats that were pounding on pilings, even if owners didnt' care to come down and prep.. it hurts to see a boat getting pounded.

also spent some time helping the neighbor, recent defever 49. he kept his bimini up and it the frame was starting to go. i helped him taking the canvas out to protect his radar and also my boat if it had blown. wild wild time. couldn't even stand in the wind. his venturi style lexan windshield broke into pieces.

not fun, but it could have been worst. at least it only lasterd about 2 huors.

 

[solanderi]

Hey Pascal,

That is 2 hours from the NW and W. The rest of the night looks like it will be S and SE. Still some pretty strong gusts out there. Same thing at the Miami Beach Marina. By 5p there were boats losing canvas. Even the Marina office awnings are trashed. Stay safe.

 

[Top Shelf]

We had some 50 to 60 MPH winds here in Boca.....worst is behind us and we faired pretty well. Hope this dang thing doesn't regroup and head north in the Gulf. Stay safe....Thx.

 

[Mike36c]

Hey guys, hang in there... We got two good A$$ kickings last year in Stuart and all can say is think about those perfect days on the hook, diving in crystal clear water, and cocktails at sunset in January. Hopefully it will numb the pain a little All the best... Mike

 

[Genesis]

This sucks severely - you guys were lucky, in that the storm moved faster than expected, but that GFDL solution appears to be verifying.

The problem is that the faster it goes, the worse it is for us, as I'm starting to get REAL concerned about an impact in my back yard (again!) The storm took up a SW/SSW bearing as it came onshore - it looks like its back to mostly-west now, which is good - any further south I cannot take, as that improves the odds of me getting shelled in a couple of days

As things stand right now I'm intending to start making preps in the morning. I think there's a VERY good chance we're going to get our azz kicked from here to Toledo by this thing, and I'm NOT looking forward to it.

Good luck down there..... and may God keep the rest of us safe the next few days.

 

[Pascal]

i hope it doesnt blow into a monster while over the gulf! but good chance it will.

NHC reported gust to 87, they got the eye passing right over them... since they are about 12 to 15 miles from here, means we were right in the eye wall, although it wasnt very well defined. here on the coast the gust where probably a little higher.

lack of preparations on most boats is unbelieveable. when i got back here around 4pm i was surprised by the lack of activity.. luckily it didn't last long so damage to most boats is minimal, canvas, maybe a few bend rubrails... Marinas in more exposed locations on the bay may have more serious damage though.

 

[Genesis]

Yeah, we saw the same thing for Dennis.

Lots of boats improperly secured. We were insanely lucky on that one; a bit further east and there would have been an incredible mess marina-wise here....