Time to sit up and pay attention

[rsmith]

Two systems being tracked as Invest 90 and 99 have the chance of being named. Best guess on timing I made here (not official). Ironically GFS and EURO are split on both systems. GFS aggressive on 99 but not 90 and EURO is aggressive on 90 but not 99. Strong high pressure in the Atlantic might be the player on 99 keeping west. Models overall real supportive of 99 become a powerful one. As far as 90, a dipping front will help determine if it goes more north in the Gulf... or strong high pressure in the Gulf keeps 90 west into Mexico. Crossing the Yucatan should slow intensification for 90... but storms have had a history of ramping up in the BOC. Lots to watch. Site and APP updated. www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP

 

[Pascal]

Well August and sept is always time to pay attention as it is the Cape Verde season. That said I think it's way too early to worry about 99 as it is still way way out there. Timing is everything and the state of the ridge, frontal timing as well as wind speed aloft and Saharan air makes any prediction as good as one coming from a strip mall tarot reader

Mike's spaghetti page as a lot of good stuff but it's all about ad revenue

 

[PeterK]

Well August and sept is always time to pay attention as it is the Cape Verde season. That said I think it's way too early to worry about 99 as it is still way way out there. Timing is everything and the state of the ridge, frontal timing as well as wind speed aloft and Saharan air makes any prediction as good as one coming from a strip mall tarot reader

Mike's spaghetti page as a lot of good stuff but it's all about ad revenue

Always on my bookmark toolbar! http://spaghettimodels.com/

 

[rsmith]

I guess we better disregard Mike. Pascal says he's only a "strip store tarot card reader" and Pascals an exspurt on everything.

 

[Pascal]

I didn't say that.

I said that beyond 5 days the accuracy of any forecast is way out there and pretty much useless hence my analogy to strip mall tarot card readers For instance on Friday most of the models had 99 passing north of the islands... yesterday afternoon they were all showing it crossing into the Caribbean Sea and this morning it's all switched back to north of the islands and recurving over or north of the Bahamas.


Within 5 days and even more so within 3 days model and forecasts accuracy are excellent and still improving

But one also needs to be aware of the rating and click games. The more traffic, the more viewers, the more readers the more $$. It's just how the game works

I use the spaghetti models but to be fair it has not original content. It's just a very convenient way for people to access a variety of data from a bunch of sources