Now Hurricane Dorian

[rsmith]

Gong to miss the DR and the mountains. All H’s now. Currently calling a Titusville landfall Sunday but hopefully will keep turning north

 

[racclarkson@gmail.com]

Gong to miss the DR and the mountains. All H’s now. Currently calling a Titusville landfall Sunday but hopefully will keep turning north

And I hope it stays on tract—-what the hell is wrong with you?!? I’m north.

 

[rsmith]

Showing Dorian as cat 2 now. And landfall keeps moving to the north. So much for all the people said it would fizzle out. Drunk Donkey was right again.

 

[Pascal]

It s five days away. Unlikely to hit where it is forecasted to right now

My concern is intensity. NHC, by their own admission, lack skills at forecasting intensity and 85kts upon landfall seems very low considering the low shear and the very warm waters. Being small, this thing can spin up very quickly once it clears the Caribbean and the mass of dry air and Saharan dust that s been holding it back

 

[tonytrakovich]

Pascal, what are your plans for the Hatteras and the Lazzara?

 

[Pascal]

For now staying put if the forecast changes and shifts south, we ll see. May have to head south to the keys

 

[Briankinley2004]

If it hits where forecasted now I guess it will come over me if it stays westerly. I am about 120 miles as the crow flies from Titusville but on the West coast

 

[Fish Tales]

I am at the Ft Pierce marina. As of this morning, shows Too close for comfort. I guess I will have to move the boat, but where is the question. One model showes West Palm, the other Jacksonville.

Maybe by Saturday, a better indication of landfall. Hate to go thru all of the work to move the boat, and put it at ground zero.

Be safe all,

Tim
Fish Tales
65c

 

[Passages]

I'm in Ft Lauderdale. Planning on doubling lines, add chaff gear, remove canvas (PITA) and getting a hotel room.

I was planning on riding it out on board but that was 2 days ago when wind speed was holding at 70. CAT 2 or 3 is a whole other thing.

Pascal, you're 30 miles south of me. Why would you run to the keys? If this hits us, I doubt the Keys would offer much add'l refuge.

 

[Pascal]

I am at the Ft Pierce marina. As of this morning, shows Too close for comfort. I guess I will have to move the boat, but where is the question. One model showes West Palm, the other Jacksonville.

Maybe by Saturday, a better indication of landfall. Hate to go thru all of the work to move the boat, and put it at ground zero.

Be safe all,

Tim
Fish Tales
65c

I think we ll start getting a clearer picture by the 11pm tonight and tomorrow morning.

Keep in mind that conditions on the north side will be a lot worst and extend a lot farther from the Center of circulation than on the south side. Higher surge, stronger easterly winds building higher waves. That s important in marina on the west side of bays with a long fetch. On the south side winds will be from the west and a lot less damaging for boats docked on the west side. Should see lower storm surge as well.

That’s what cause the heavy damage in coconut grove with Irma as we were on the NE side with long fetch up the bay and water piling really high.

If you have to move, south is the way to go but beware of bridge closures on the ICW if evacs are ordered. Although with the storm east of the Bahamas outside conditions should remain good enough

 

[Passages]

Thank you Pascal.
This will be my first Florida hurricane and if you listen to the TV talking heads, this will be the apocalypse.

 

[racclarkson@gmail.com]

Thank you Pascal.
This will be my first Florida hurricane and if you listen to the TV talking heads, this will be the apocalypse.

Maybe this is why. Latest NHC release


2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surgealong portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or earlynext week, although it is too soon to determine where the higheststorm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane planin place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, andlisten to advice given by local emergency officials.3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Floridaeast coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next weekcontinues to increase, although it is too soon to determine wherethe strongest winds will occur.4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expectedto occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in thesoutheastern United States this weekend and into the middle of nextweek.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 29/1500Z 21.4N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 25.6N 71.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 26.3N 73.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 27.0N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH That's a Cat 4 96H 02/1200Z 27.5N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH120H 03/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

 

[Passages]

Oh bloody hell.....

CAT 4. I am truly, for the first time in a long time....scared.

 

[RonNP]

As a former resident of Fort Lauderdale, I think I would take Pascal's advice and head south for the Keys. This one looks nasty.

 

[Pascal]

Thank you Pascal.
This will be my first Florida hurricane and if you listen to the TV talking heads, this will be the apocalypse.

Well yes, if it makes landfall as a cat 2 or 3, the immediate area will get extensive damage. But keep in mind that the heavy damage is usually contained within 50 to 75 miles of the eye. I said “usually” because sometimes you can get a heavy squall line in the outer bands with embedded tornadoes further away from the center, which is what happens here in Coconut Grove with Irma, about 100nm from the eye.

 

[racclarkson@gmail.com]

Highest probability of landfall as of now is Ft. Pierce to W. Palm per NHC. Seems to be trending south.

 

[Pascal]

Highest probability of landfall as of now is Ft. Pierce to W. Palm per NHC. Seems to be trending south.

Fort Pierce is at 46% total chance of hurricane force winds. Track shifted south a little yesterday afternoon but has stopped shifting south since. Reason why I d avoid going north, beside being the stringer quadrant is that all models show a turn to the north as it approaches or cross the coast. If it slows down before landfall as is now suggested, the turn could happen sooner increasing the risks north of Canaveral

Still too early to make a final decision.

 

[Passages]

I'm on the ICW in FLL. Many a mega yacht have been parading south. They can't all fit in Key West.

I'm trying something I've not done before - use my anchor chain as a storm line. Thinking of pushing the boat back in the slip about 10', running the chain through the pulpit and wrapping the chain around the concrete piling off the bow. Put a little slack in it and use my anchor bridal to soften the load. Any reason this a bad idea?

 

[doc g]

Aren't their plenty of places to anchor even south and west of Key West ?? Obviously not all those boats are heading to marinas. I would feel a lot better by myself in in a good anchorage with no one to be seen around me. Most damage comes from other stuff, flying debris, boats that no one has attended to and losing pilings underwater, boats coming untied and chaffed thru , etc. I've ridden a few out on the anchor and I felt pretty safe. Maybe falsely so, but I had none of the other issues .......Pat

 

[dar636]

Whatever you all do, I hope its a safe weekend for everyone.