Genesis
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Hope You Got Out Of The Market
- Thread starter Genesis
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Maynard Rupp
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Yes, Karl...Thank you from all of us. This will not be a good day for the equity markets.
SeaEric
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I was fed up with the stock market back in August of 2007. I made a call to my broker and said "sell it all and send me a check". Other than a little bit of stock (almost worthless) in my SEP IRA, I am 99.7% in cash.
I am so pleased that I sold my 46 Matthews back in May.
I am so pleased that I sold my 46 Matthews back in May.
OP
OP
Genesis
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Unless you're trading, the answer is "a long time from now."
After this next dislocation (which appears imminent and starting now) if you want to go long for a bounce, that's fine, but that's a trade (weeks to a couple months max) at best and must be watched CLOSELY.
The best analogue to what we're looking at is probably 29-34. Go look at what happened to you if you bought into the "rebound" after the crash of '29.
You got killed.
After this next dislocation (which appears imminent and starting now) if you want to go long for a bounce, that's fine, but that's a trade (weeks to a couple months max) at best and must be watched CLOSELY.
The best analogue to what we're looking at is probably 29-34. Go look at what happened to you if you bought into the "rebound" after the crash of '29.
You got killed.
thoward
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I am freeing up cash and buying all the way down 
. We have not lost much today but it is almost 3pm and that is when it will get exciting. I figure it has to go back up sooner or later.....
. We have not lost much today but it is almost 3pm and that is when it will get exciting. I figure it has to go back up sooner or later.....krush
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Karl's full of it. Now's a great time to buy. I'm young, I got a long time to recover--the market always rebounds and goes up! BUY BUY BUY!
Note: the above is sarcasm and me being facetious. If you don't know what those two words are, find a dictionary.
Note: the above is sarcasm and me being facetious. If you don't know what those two words are, find a dictionary.
SKYCHENEY
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Investors now need to do what investors SHOULD have been doing all along. That is to research and buy only when they can find a company that is in good financial shape(good cash flow, low debt), with good prospects for future earnings (recession proof market, good margins), and is not over-priced. Are there any such investments out there right now? Maybe, but it will take research to find them.
The problem is that so many that have invested in the market over the years were not much more than dart-throwers. Why do you think we have all of these index funds? People didn't care if they bought the bad with the good. It all went up. Now you must be a savy investor. You have know how to read a balance sheet, not just listen to somebody who yells out stock picks on TV.
To call all stocks a bad investment is just as irresponsible as calling all of them a good investment when the market was growing. There was a time when markets were assumed to be efficient, but those were the days of real investors. They didn't buy tech stocks at 100 times earnings. That would have been absurd. But those are some of the same guys that did just that in later years. Why? Because everybody else was doing it and everybody else was making money. They lost a sense of what was prudent and wise because they all wanted that high return. The same thing happened in real estate.
Be careful, be smart, and don't deviate from your investment strategy just because "everybody else is doing it". Stocks may still be a part of your portfolio but they'll have to continue to compete with other investments. If you can't or won't take the time to do your own research, you probably shouldn't have been the market anyway.
The problem is that so many that have invested in the market over the years were not much more than dart-throwers. Why do you think we have all of these index funds? People didn't care if they bought the bad with the good. It all went up. Now you must be a savy investor. You have know how to read a balance sheet, not just listen to somebody who yells out stock picks on TV.
To call all stocks a bad investment is just as irresponsible as calling all of them a good investment when the market was growing. There was a time when markets were assumed to be efficient, but those were the days of real investors. They didn't buy tech stocks at 100 times earnings. That would have been absurd. But those are some of the same guys that did just that in later years. Why? Because everybody else was doing it and everybody else was making money. They lost a sense of what was prudent and wise because they all wanted that high return. The same thing happened in real estate.
Be careful, be smart, and don't deviate from your investment strategy just because "everybody else is doing it". Stocks may still be a part of your portfolio but they'll have to continue to compete with other investments. If you can't or won't take the time to do your own research, you probably shouldn't have been the market anyway.
OP
OP
Genesis
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Mario - you're late. WAY late.
I would wait for the reflex rally. There will be one, but there may be one more sickening drop before it happens. In fact, I rate the odds of a blowup next week at 70%.
The problem with this is that when that reflex rally comes its going to be a "rip your face off" event, and people WILL be tempted to buy back in if they sold here.
Guess what - people did that in 2001 too and got destroyed. History says that after this next decline (unless we rally hard here and now) there will be a nice bounce, several months long, then the REAL downside bottom comes, and that's the one you definitely don't want to be in for.
I would wait for the reflex rally. There will be one, but there may be one more sickening drop before it happens. In fact, I rate the odds of a blowup next week at 70%.
The problem with this is that when that reflex rally comes its going to be a "rip your face off" event, and people WILL be tempted to buy back in if they sold here.
Guess what - people did that in 2001 too and got destroyed. History says that after this next decline (unless we rally hard here and now) there will be a nice bounce, several months long, then the REAL downside bottom comes, and that's the one you definitely don't want to be in for.
krush
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I put my measly 401k in the "safest" fund I could choose from the vast selectino of 12 funds. It was a "capital preservation fund"...when my current rate of return is 0.27%----the rest are all negative!
Glad i didn't listen to the idiot HR people and other "know alls" at work.
MarioG
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Do I cash out then or do I move into low risk investments?
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Genesis
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Define "low risk".
I think there is a very good chance that 768, the 2003/04 low on the S&P, does not hold. If it doesn't 500 is the next target, and it is POSSIBLE for us to see 200.
Oh, with that 200 comes a global depression.
All this talk about Bretton Woods III? Its a threat. So is the announcement from Taiwan that they no longer consider "agency" securities to be rated paper.
The bailout was a huge mistake just like Fannie and Freddie before it, and now the "crowding out" paradigm is in full force. Pension funds are being forced to liquidate to meet current obligations, which is a slope that once started down, leads directly to a crash.
We had the opportunity to stop this, and failed. Now we must eat the consequences.
As for exact timing on an exit if you're still in the market, I don't know. Its all high-stakes gambling here. We could literally crash Monday.
I think there is a very good chance that 768, the 2003/04 low on the S&P, does not hold. If it doesn't 500 is the next target, and it is POSSIBLE for us to see 200.
Oh, with that 200 comes a global depression.
All this talk about Bretton Woods III? Its a threat. So is the announcement from Taiwan that they no longer consider "agency" securities to be rated paper.
The bailout was a huge mistake just like Fannie and Freddie before it, and now the "crowding out" paradigm is in full force. Pension funds are being forced to liquidate to meet current obligations, which is a slope that once started down, leads directly to a crash.
We had the opportunity to stop this, and failed. Now we must eat the consequences.
As for exact timing on an exit if you're still in the market, I don't know. Its all high-stakes gambling here. We could literally crash Monday.
