Dennis

[Traveler 45C]

Lately I’m getting pretty good at prepping Traveler for storms. It seems like every week I go through the drill of taking the top down and throwing extra lines on… Arleen, Cindy now this…

Good luck to all who will be affected by this menace.

See ya’ after the storm,

Greg

 

[Tom Ipock]

Doesn't look good for the Gulf Coast - AGAIN! I guess you guys must be feeling like we did in NC for a few years. Man, when Hurricanes pick on an area, they seem to really bear down on that specific area for a while.
Good luck, we'll be watching and hoping you the best.
Tom

 

[Genesis]

Yeah, this sucks.

I think this beast is going west of us, but if I don't like the 5:00 AM update I'm headed for Appalachicola in Gigabite. Will stop at Panama City by which time I should have the 11AM update and look at it, then decide where we end up.

I see three possibilities -

1. It hits Destin in the face, or nearly so. In that case I go east, because I have no choice - there is no good anchorage west, and the risk of getting caught in the ICW is too high. Instead I go into the ICW and probably hang out there.

2. It goes east. We stay at the dock. If its east of us by at least 40-50 miles it won't be a big deal here.

3. It goes west (anything west of Pensacola.) I still go to Appalachicola, have dinner, camp overnight, and come home. No big deal.

This is a small storm (50nm out you have only a tropical storm) but if you get it in the face you're going to be VERY unhappy....

The problem is that the tracks are all over the place, and the dynamic models put this biatch (most of them anyway) right on top of Panama City. NOT the place to be - but it makes Destin reasonably safe, as it will be on the weak side of the storm, and the one that doesn't get surged. The NHC track is completely ignoring these - and the other outlier, which has been insisting on a track into Biloxi or New Orleans for the last 4 days!

Basically the NHC is splitting the difference - that's not a forecast, its a freaking GUESS, and I think it SUCKS.

 

[Liquid Asset]

This Storm Sucks, I had left our boat in Apalachicola last weekend because on our delivery home we had electrical failure on the port side and could not restart a motor after it stalled. Then we found out about Dennis. So enter SeaTow who finally yesterday towed it back to the Millers Marina in Panama City to be put back on the Hill after our unsuccessful trip home. But what I hate is that I can not do anything to secure the boat because I am in West Florida and amost 300 miles from the boat. Hopefully it just misses Panama city, but it is not looking good.

 

[Genesis]

Ok, here's what's up from my perspective...

All the models are converging on Mobile, AL as the target. This is good, as the lack of divergence increases confidence - mine and others.

Also, Cuba ripped the crap out of the storm. The NHC is playing their usual games - their plane couldn't find winds over 71kts at FLIGHT LEVEL, but they're reporting this as a 90mph sustained storm. Bull$hit - there's a 10kt difference at least between flight level and ground, which puts the storm at 61kts max sustained - that's not even a hurricane!

Finally, the SHIPS model no longer calls for anything over 90mph at landfall. Yet the NHC is still calling for this biatch to be a Cat3 or even a FOUR at landfall.

That sort of "scare the pants off people" game is irresponsible and STUPID. The NHC should be above this crap - but they're not.

Anyway, I'm still at the dock - if I don't like the 11am update I'm heading for the ditch and will hole up there. I'm no longer worried about my house getting bushwhacked, and unless there's evidence that we're going to get stronger than a Cat 1 over here at Destin I'm going to double up and stay at the dock. Since hurricane force winds only extend out 65 miles from center (and never DID extend further, even when Dennis was a Cat 4!) the odds of us taking a hurricane-force hit here at Destin are pretty low - but not zero - at this point.

Nonetheless, I'd rather ride a storm at the dock with doublers and redundancy out than on the hook, all things being equal. We rode out Arlene which was a very strong TS just a few weeks ago and were actually on the boat during the height of it.

 

[Gina Marie]

To Genesis and all others in the path of Dennis. We are out of Boca Raton and we will miss the storm although we took all the pecautions. Our thoughts are with you be save and careful. Gina Marie/Tom

 

[Mike36c]

Amen Karl, I think the head of the NHC has his whole retirement tied up in Home Depot stock!

 

[Genesis]

The models are now pushing landfall even FURTHER west. It now looks like the WEST side of Mobile, towards the Alabama/MS border.

We'll see if the NHC updates the warning cone and track in an hour when the 11:00 AM update comes out.

The FSU superensemble's last run, which completed LATE last night, also points west of us. This is encouraging as it has been the east outlier since this started - its original solution pointed at Appalachicola.

The LOCAL WX forecast is now calling for possible gusts to 70mph, with 50mph sustained. I believe it - that's about what I'm expecting.

Of course NOAA's marine forecast is calling for 100mph sustained all the way to Panama City, and 25' seas! Give me a freaking break - Ivan produced 50 footers, but that was 100nm south in 500+' of water and this forecast is only valid out 20nm - where water depth is only about 100'.

The other potential issue is surge - I'm just not sure what we're going to face there. The "official look" says 10+' - again, I'm not sure I buy that number. Now up in Mobile Bay, yes, if this thing comes in just west of it.... I'm expecting 5ish.

 

[Freestyle]

I fled Key West two days ago but onlymade it to Marathon before they closed Jew Fish Creek bridge and the Hawk channel got too rough.

I am literally next to the east end of 7 Mile Bridge where they keep drawing dividing line for Hurricane and Trop Storm. Peak sustained came at 8 Am at 39 mph. Gusts probably hit the 50's. So far no damage for me or the other 5 boats which remain unoccupied. I am just wet and tired of adjusting dock lines and fenders and finding all of the things I forgot to do when I had the chance.

I wonder if I will remember any of this next spring when I again will say to the wife, "why don't I take the boat to the Keys for July".

Good luck in the panhandle.

Bruce

 

[Pascal]

i agree, there is always a political/spychological element in the official forecasts in addition to averaging some of the models.

beside the risk of a direct hit, are the rain band that can bring some serious winds quite a distance away. nothing catastrophic unless hit by a embedded tornado, but certainly enough to rip canvas... we had a few strong lines moving thru last night, i had to get up around 4 to fish out someone's plywood boarding steps adrift and banging on the hull

 

[Genesis]

Ok, we're hunkered down at the dock - the decision has been made.

I hope its the right one.

The storm isn't getting any stronger as of now, and hurricane wind swath is only 35nm from the eye - so it pretty much has to get you dead on for you to get anything over 75mph.

We just did Arlene in the marina, and were on board during it. No problems at all, and she was riding VERY well. That was very close to a 75mph storm.

If we get hit in the face I'm a bit concerned, but otherwise, we should be ok. My dock is very well-shielded from the south and east, which are the dangerous directions. About 3/4 of the boats in the marina did not leave. I've got my spiderweb out...

Wish Gigabite luck..... maybe this biatch will go west enough that we just get some wind and a bunch of rain...

 

[MarioG]

good luck Karl.

Mario

 

[wphuddle]

Wish us Luck! Rafted up with thirty other boats in Little Briar Creek about ten miles up the Mobile river. Great thanks to Sonny Middleon at Dog River Marina for all his help with the preparations. Crossing my fingers that the "Patience" makes it.

God Speed!

Parker

 

[Tom Ipock]

Hope everyone made the right move - it looks like Dennis has played it's bluff. Last i read, it is still building. Hang on & good luck!
Tom

 

[Genesis]

I found a private dock this evening that is basically hurricane-proof. A friend had someone move his boat (which used to moor there for storms), and that spot is now Gig's for this storm and whatever in the future. Just got back from moving her - it was sporty out on the bay for the 15ish mile run, but we made it without incident.

If I get hosed there, then God hates me. I don't think there's better available anywhere in the Panhandle, its less than 5 minutes from the house, and I can get there any time (no flooding out risk on the roads between here and there) to check on her.

Y'all be safe - Dennis looks to be nasty, and it appears that its going up into Mobile Bay. If you're up there be damn careful - a direct hit with that kind of fetch into the bay can produce insane surge levels - look at what Pensacola got with Ivan....

 

[Liquid Asset]

Well, This storm is making me nervous. Even though I am on the Hill, There are 100 other boats cramed in there at Millers in Panama City. This damn storm is making me really nervous. I am so far from the boat and if some other boat falls on mine I guess it is screwed, but I just dont like this.

 

[Genesis]

Landfall in about 2 hours, looking to be a dead hit on Pensacola Bay. BAD NEWS for them. However, the hurricane wind core is only 40 miles in radius, which means that we're going to get nailed, but not TOO badly.

We're hunkered down in the house; still have power, cable, and internet. Cell and terrestrial phones are still up. Water is up about a foot and a half in the bay, but so far - and may God keep it this way - no huge surge. We're not leaving the house unless the water starts coming in what looks to be an uncontrollable fashion, which at this point I do not expect to happen.

I'd estimate sustained winds right now in the 50-60 mph range with higher gusts. Expecting to take winds in the 80-100mph range. Pensacola beach is getting plastered from the TV images I'm seeing; waves are coming up over the pier, which is 27 feet off the water.

SO FAR this is nowhere NEAR what Ivan presented to us; by this time during Ivan we had 100mph+ winds at the house. However, with Ivan we had no surge issues until several hours AFTER it came ashore - I have no idea if that will hold this time or not.

 

[Tom Ipock]

From what we see on TV, it doesn't appear that it was much of a storm? How did your boat do in Destin? Give us a rundown.
Tom

 

[Genesis]

Boat and house are fine, but power is out. I'm on my laptop in the driveway on my wireless right now...

It was a howler near here, and west of here it REALLY sucked. My understanding is that Navarre/Gulf Breeze got pasted, but I haven't been over there yet - we're under curfew. I may get out tomorrow and have a look around, as I have to go by the marina and see what's up over there.

 

[MarioG]

Karl, good to hear you and your boat are ok


I hope Greg, Parker and Pat faired the same