Can't depend on NOAA forecast

[Bob Bradley]

So, its 11:40 on Wed evening and here is the NOAA forecast for Eastern Long Island Sound:

ANZ330-302100-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
600 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021


TODAY
E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and
afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.

TONIGHT
S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.

WED
S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to
3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in
the afternoon.

WED NIGHT
S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas
2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

THU
W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to
5 ft. Showers.

 

[carolinacoast]

Not sure if the intention is to discuss weather from late March, but I usually reference prog charts on the aviation side https://aviationweather.gov/progchart/sfc for reference on frontal activity.
Perhaps one way to get that forecast would be to be east of a low pressure system moving N to the West of you, with a heavier pressure gradient on the right side. Oscarvan or other pilots could comment further.

 

[rsmith]

Not sure if the intention is to discuss weather from late March, but I usually reference prog charts on the aviation side https://aviationweather.gov/progchart/sfc for reference on frontal activity.
Perhaps one way to get that forecast would be to be east of a low pressure system moving N to the West of you, with a heavier pressure gradient on the right side. Oscarvan or other pilots could comment further.

Probably cause he got it in May

 

[oscarvan]

Not sure if the intention is to discuss weather from late March, but I usually reference prog charts on the aviation side https://aviationweather.gov/progchart/sfc for reference on frontal activity.
Perhaps one way to get that forecast would be to be east of a low pressure system moving N to the West of you, with a heavier pressure gradient on the right side. Oscarvan or other pilots could comment further.

After decades of looking at these charts I still only understand the basics I learned from Don Weaver in Meteorology 101 in 1983 about the behavior of a warm/cold or occluded front with nothing else around it. When there's lows and highs swirling around each other it gets complicated.

The science however has gotten much better and the forecasters, together with more and more powerful computers, do a pretty decent job these days. So my "Storm Radar" app is it. Unless I go on bigger water which I rarely do anymore and then I go to the marine forecasts.

 

[Captain Ralph]

Weather is dynamic and ever changing. Sometimes it's a hard show to follow.
I have been using products from NWS/NOAA for a long time now.
Their forecast and discussions come real close.
Years ago, spent a lot of time buzzing in a 182 between Lantana and Marsh Harbor.
We could always pick up the latest forecast and know what time of day (or not) to cross over.

There are other days when you wonder what planet are they forecasting for.
Then you look at the web pages and try to figure out your self.
The crux of this thread.


I still do better than the local TV people.

My bug is with the TV / local weather people (Jax FL). It is so funny sometimes that they have the same resources that I have, yet try to re-invent the weather wheel and forecast themselves.
Some have their own weather radar systems.
They could improve their weather forecasting so much better just by looking out a window, but hey, they have commercials to sell and air time to fill.
Further humorous, sitting in your car, at a red light, in the rain, on the radio; another breaking news update and weather report,,, No wrecks and clear skies... Right..

 

[Bob Bradley]

Guys, that's all great. But I just want to read the damn NOAA forecast for today and get today's weather, not the weather from 2 days ago.

 

[Pascal]

Ok... so the issue isn’t the forecast itself but the fact that the website served the old one. That s happened before. Which site did you use ?

 

[oscarvan]

Guys, that's all great. But I just want to read the damn NOAA forecast for today and get today's weather, not the weather from 2 days ago.

Ah, I missed that. Browser restart? Clear cookies?

 

[jap201]

Guys, that's all great. But I just want to read the damn NOAA forecast for today and get today's weather, not the weather from 2 days ago.

Absolutely. Nothing worse than trying to plan a trip, counting on the late marine forecast, and realizing it's the marine pastcast. really sucks when you're planning on leaving o'dark 30...

you running the new boat up to westerly?

 

[carolinacoast]

That looks like a March 30 forecast.
Here is the Greenport noaa link
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.1026&lon=-72.3632#.YJQ1ZlMpBSA

 

[Captain Ralph]

We have passed this site to our customers. Just wondering if anybody else uses it.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-81.683349609375&lat=29.57572637606806

 

[racclarkson@gmail.com]

We have passed this site to our customers. Just wondering if anybody else uses it.https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-81.683349609375&lat=29.57572637606806

I use it. Better than some well known app sites. Windy had it at 9 knots all day at marina last week when a steady 17 knots with gusts was the reality. Can’t figure the disconnect.

 

[Pascal]

I use it. Better than some well known app sites. Windy had it at 9 knots all day at marina last week when a steady 17 knots with gusts was the reality. Can’t figure the disconnect.

The disconnect comes from which model you selected in windy or which model loads up by default.

I use passageweather.com the most when going to or from the Exumas. Very simple interface. Pretty much always on target

 

[rsmith]

You’ve got a Hatteras the weather isn’t an issue.

 

[Stripes]

You’ve got a Hatteras the weather isn’t an issue.

Truth!

Lol!