Heads up keys and so Florida

[cww]

And then there was my house 5 miles north of FtPierce. Tore off the roof and gutted the house.

Jesus.

[Captain Ralph]

I'm hoping the prediction being dead-on for my dock means it'll land somewhere else. I can't recall an early prediction being exactly correct!

Between the GSF and European weather models, the exact path of TD9 is pretty uncertain as now.
The big cone of weather uncertainty has the eye hitting the upper keys to Panama City.
Florida will still get clobbered somewhere.
Sadly, the longer the storm stays in the gulf, the uglier it will hit.
I found this interesting site last year.
Already Levi is explaining the building of TD9 here.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Pascal]

His daily analysis is the best. Nothing flashy, no dogs, no drama queen, he doesn’t sell tee shirt or coffee mugs. Just solid stuff.

His explanation of how the models are having a hard time dealing with the current shape of the system is very educational. We just need to wait till the damn thing actually forms.

[JuiceClark]

Between the GSF and European weather models, the exact path of TD9 is pretty uncertain as now.
The big cone of weather uncertainty has the eye hitting the upper keys to Panama City.
Florida will still get clobbered somewhere.
Sadly, the longer the storm stays in the gulf, the uglier it will hit.
I found this interesting site last year.
Already Levi is explaining the building of TD9 here.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

That's a good one. This Mike guy is a little long-winded, but I'll watch the updates from each of those until she arrives.
https://youtu.be/cb_dAOBuLko?t=345

I have 9 lines attached to 7 pilings and I'll drop the big anchor in the middle of the canal. 7 bumpers lining the starboard along a bumper-lined dock. I'm not aware of anything else I can do to keep a 52C out of my pool. The biggest risk seems to be the wind blowing directly toward the dock and this beast of a boat crushing it.

[rsmith]

Plug your fuel vents and anything that will let driving rain in. I cut some old bumpers and shove them in the exhaust. In Frances I forgot the stove vent and had water made it’s way through the ductwork and had a waterfall coming down on the stove.
First dock I had had single tie off piles. Any heavy wind they would bend and the boat would lay against the dock. I went to triples and had no problem for many years Frances and Jeene came and the trips couldn’t keep the boat off the dock. Now I have a cluster of 6 each. If anything takes them out it’s all over anyway.
Try to use 3 strand lines the braided May have a higher capacity on paper but they chew through faster and in a sudden gust the impact will snap them. I had a 3/4” braided line snap in the middle with no abrasion in Jeene. We had a heavy gust which knocked me off my feet inside the boat. The line snapped with a sound like a rifle shot. Later when I looked at it all the ends were melted where it broke from the tremendous heat of all those strands choking together when it came taught.

[madhatter1]

At 8 AM it was headed directly to my 46. Now at 11 its headed north of my 46. Which is worse!!

[rsmith]

At 8 AM it was headed directly to my 46. Now at 11 its headed north of my 46. Which is worse!!

The NE quadrant is worst. It’s the gusts and mini tornadoes that do the most damage.

[Pascal]

Spaghetti Mike is a bit of a drama queen so he can increase traffic to his page which is really nothing more than a page of links. Tropical tidbits is a lot more technical.

The 11am has shifted a little more to the west resulting in a landfall further up coast. Problem with the west coast is that storm come form the south at a very shallow angle so it s very difficult to narrow down the landfall point

I always look at the trend, not the individual tracks. And since the start NHC has been shifting W and N, a little at a time. The pan handle or at least Big Bend is at risk too

[JD5652]

At 8 AM it was headed directly to my 46. Now at 11 its headed north of my 46. Which is worse!!

Yep... I'm right there with you!.... I'll be going down tomorrow to put more lines on and put out the fender boards...

[Captain Ralph]

Well, TD9 has a name now; Ian.