Not all of us can be as confident as Pascal about the storm's path. I was here in Islamorada as Irma approached. Initially, my thought was to run to the west coast. Then as the storm grew and the path began to show a westward move, I thought about running up the east coast. By Tuesday, the storm was so big, and the cone still large enough to encompass all of south Florida, we decided to hunker down, and leave. Evacuation for residents, like us, became mandatory on Wednesday. We left on Thursday as the predicted path showed a possible direct hit. We were lucky to survive with no damage except some rub rail rash due to the worst effects of the storm hitting the ocean side of Plantation Key. So staying put worked for us.

Similarly, in '16, we were coming down the east coast as Matthew threatened south Florida. We decided to hold up in New Smyrna Beach to wait out the storm. But then the predicted path changed to have Matthew move up the coast with landfall predicted anywhere from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville, or even further into Georgia and South Carolina. As would happen with Irma, nowhere to run with any certainty. We evacuated just ahead of the storm glancing off the coast at Daytona and thankfully suffered only minor damage.

The lesson, at least for me, is that I should have the boat [we're live-aboards] ready to run if the forecast is solid enough, and there is a place more secure for me to get to within time. But eventhough the boat is my home, I'll not take the risk that the storm won't confound the weatherman if I can't be damned sure that going is safer than leaving.