number of boats for sale...

[Pascal]

saw this on Pascoe's blog, scary numbers... if true

http://davidpascoeblog.com/2007/12/1...market-update/

[Passages]

Yeah, I read that too but I think it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

I have a lot of respect for Dr. Pascoe, but those numbers are a bit suspicious. 53% of all registered boats 40-65' are for sale? Sure, but how many are seriously for sale? I know many boats are listed just to see if there's a fool out there.

I've spoken to two brokers in CT who say that prices are down, but not by a huge amount. Finance money is readily available for anyone with decent credit. Now maybe this is just BS coming from a couple brokers who have a vested interest in selling boats at the highest price possible - I don't know.

I've been tracking about 6 boats on my wish list. When they banner "MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!' it's usually a 5-10% adjustment. Certainly not enough to encourage me to pick up the phone.

I continue to closely watch the market, but sometimes it's hard to figure. I can wait until March.

[MikeP]

As I have stated MANY times on this site, I am a huge fan of Pascoe's when it comes to boats themselves. I have talked to him several times in teh past, seeking advice about boats. However, I have the opposite opinion when he starts talking about oil/economics, etc. He IS a boat expert; he is NOT an expert on world economics so I pay absolutely NO attention to anything he says that is not directly related to the function/construction/operation, etc of boats.

I am amused with folks who self-proclaim (or imply) that they are knowledgeable on something when they are nothing more than "armchair experts." For example, who are you going to listen to, some guy who spouts all sorts of medical opinion based on stuff he has read or a DOCTOR who actually deals with the reality of medical issues every day?

Pascoe talking about BOATS is credible; Pascoe talking about the economy/oil is not.

[Pascal]

yep... a can of salt in some cases... that's why i said "if true"


oh... i see... 34 000 boats for sale between 40 and 65' WORLDWIDE !

if you filter for US boats, it's "only" 16 385...

slight difference :-)

[SeaEric]

The other thing is: he is quoting numbers from the Coast Guard which covers only Federally Documeted Yachts. Many boats are only state registered and not documented. 66% of the boats that I own personally are only state registered. Only 33% of my owned boats are Coast Guard documented. How's that for statistics.

The numbers that make more sense would be in the models where we know the production numbers, ie how many were built as compared to how many are listed for sale. One can assume that in an average market, roughly 10% of the production run of any model is on the market for sale. Any huge fluctuation in that type percentage may have some meaning. What true meaning is anyone's guess.

From a marketing standpoint, if your boat is one of 50 identical ones for sale, you had better be priced right and show well if you're motivated to sell.

[Genesis]

The softness isn't real evident yet in the listings and, more importantly, prices.

It will be.

Give it another six to nine months.

[primecut]

I'm not sure what to think of this...... but some of the boats have been on yachtworld a long time. I think part of the reason they haven't sold is the owners are not willing to cut their losses and are way overpriced. Some of these boats won't sell because the owner is upside down on the loan and it's less painful to make the payments and perhaps wait it out, than make a big payment to make it go away. My feeling is it will take some time...Lightly used boats usually don't depreciate as fast as heavily used ones. New boat sales have or will plummet and it will become, basically supply and demand. Right now i think the demand is very low, So low in fact that people are willing to give them away...and thats what i'm looking for!..I heard someone say a while ago.............they didn't want to buy a boat they want to steal it. I've got my eye on few.......

possibly a good time to buy ..
possibly good time to sell if your moving up or down

[Bill Allen]

I think this is not just a credit issue. I think at least were I boat (N.J.) there are many other things going on. Fuel to name one, not just in the boat but the car home heating etc. Second perhaps more alarming is up here at least the hobby seems to have changed, less people really getting in the old people getting out. I see the same in the dive industry. More boats sit at the dock so dock queens, carvers, sea rays all seem to be acceptable especially since a lot of people haven't a clue about boats. I know at most of the marinas I aware of boats sit empty most of the time. There's a lot of competion for leisure time and money, golf, cars, computers and travel but to name a few. It's a very expensive hobby as we all know and it really seems to me that less people are willing to make the comitment a decent size boat takes. Bill

[Passages]

Second perhaps more alarming is up here at least the hobby seems to have changed, less people really getting in the old people getting out

Excellent point. One that I had not considered. As older folks downsize or get out, are there adequate numbers of buyers willing to jump into a 20+ year old boat that gets less than 1 mpg? Probably not. There are many who enjoy boating, but far fewer who are committed to boating as a lifestyle choice.

[SeaEric]

The softness isn't real evident yet in the listings and, more importantly, prices. It will be. Give it another six to nine months.

Some of the bargain boats have been there on the market but they get picked off pretty quick by savvy buyers who are willing and able. There are guys scanning the net every day waiting for the right "deal" to pop up. I have seen them go by. I think Karl may not be entirely wrong. There will be more bargain boats to appear in the coming months.