Sales Intel ???

[ReelSlinger]

Does anyone have current, accurate intel on convertible/SF sales? A number of great boats on the market… but is anything selling, and at what price?

Since I asked this question about three weeks ago we've enjoyed interesting discussions on boats and the economy. I recently came across a site where the knowledgeable public is asked to value various boats. There is a section asking you to value a 1986 Hatteras 41C. This isn't NADA or BUC or McKnew Parker, this is the boating public setting current values on various boats. Check it out www(dot)burningglacier(dot)com

[Passages]

This is what I am being told:

Convertibles have been very hard hit by the current slump.
Prices have dropped but many owners can not afford to write a check to cover the outstanding loan balance. Therefore, some will continue to demand elevated prices hoping a cash flush fool comes along. If the day comes where they can no longer float the boat expenses - they will give it back to the bank letiing the chips fall where they may.

Deals are out there, but not everywhere. Patience pays.

[spartonboat1]

Isn't this the flip side of in the past, when I thought the cnv/sf's commanded a premium. No longer true?

[krush]

Us vultures are circling, you can be assured of that. Remember, vultures don't kill, we just clean up the mess and ensure nothing goes to waste.

[SeaEric]

When the car business and the building/mechanical trades resume, so will the market for sportfish boats. If you're a buyer, now is the time.

[Walter P]

Eric,

I agree with you about buying now.. Makes me wish I didn't already have a Hatt. I feel like a kid in a candy store with the prices of older Hatts out there. Must resist temptation.

An aside to one of your other posts........ You posted that you were having lunch at a restaurant on the icw and you spotted a 48 my, Chateau de Mar passing by at 2 pm. I happened to read it right after you posted it and had a good time on the cell phone with the owner, bobk who is on his way down to the keys. He knew I was in San Diego at the time and I had him going about how in the world I knew where he was. I just told him big brother was watching... lol

Back on subject of this thread...... Not only are used boat prices in free fall, but new product is not moving. At the New York boat show I saw more sales people than customers. Since new boats are not selling or being manufactured, it seems to me that when things turn around (and they will turn around), there may be a renewed interest in older boats, especially if they are in decent condition. Hopefully demand will outstrip supply. I remember in 1946 after the war and for a few years afterward, you had to practically bribe a new car dealer to sell you a car. At the same time used car prices went through the roof. American car production was stopped during 1943,44 and 45 as the plants were converted to the war effort.

Walt

[Genesis]

Those who think that this is going to be a garden-variety "recession" are delusional.

In the 1970s downturn you couldn't give larger boats away in the Great Lakes area. I lived on an island and people literally could not sell at any price. Many folks who owned were bankrupted by vessels that had literal zero values associated with them - and they were nice, larger boats.

The runabout market wasn't QUITE that bad, but it still sucked. But anything over 30' was essentially unmarketable.

Yes, I'm aware that there are significant differences between what were boats then and now, but I would caution those who's professional experience only goes back into the 80s to be extremely careful with thinking that this is going to be a slowdown and have an impact similar to the business cycles we have seen since 1980.

There is a very high probability you are in for a hell of a surprise.

The "car sales" analogy might be good, but one might want to think about what happens to that segment of the economy with a longer-term run rate of ~8 million vehicles sold a year as opposed to the run rate we've built at for the last several years, and then extrapolate that through the economy. That is but one area, and that ~8 million area is likely quite solid in terms of where we're heading in the next few years and for a good long time beyond.

[GaryNW]

I believe the boat industry shares a problem with automotive- overcapacity. This and the simple fact that frp boats last so long- a shake-out was inevitable. A few months ago, bayliner's mother plant in Arlington, Wa (about 7 miles from my house) was shutdown and 800 employees were let go. What was different compared to past slowdowns is that they announced that the downsizing was permanent and they would be selling the property. We say good-riddance but realize that this was a big blow to a small community; perhaps 50% of the manufacturing jobs gone overnight. Nitch builders seem to be doing ok so far. High-end trawlers, those little fake tug-boats, efficient diesel planners (like MJM) and of course megayachts. Looks like a return to the 20's- yachting is for the well-heeled. I am glad I prefer the classics; say a 1975 Hatteras!
Gary

[SeaEric]

To clarify: My analogy to the car biz and building trades relates generally to the BUYERS for sportfish boats. Many sportfish buyers/owners are in the automotive and/or mechanical/building trades. These guys are hurting now. When their business returns, and it will if lending loosens up, they will be back in the boat buying market. Right now, they want OUT of their boats, hence the buying opportunity.

People want to buy stuff. When they figure out that they can, they will. If fuel stays down a bit and the banks get back on track and the sky doesn't fall, it will happen.

If you see what looks like a nice buy on a boat that you LIKE and WANT, go for it. Why wait? Your time is better spent boating than it is shopping.

[Genesis]

To clarify: My analogy to the car biz and building trades relates generally to the BUYERS for sportfish boats. Many sportfish buyers/owners are in the automotive and/or mechanical/building trades. These guys are hurting now. When their business returns, and it will if lending loosens up, they will be back in the boat buying market. Right now, they want OUT of their boats, hence the buying opportunity.

People want to buy stuff. When they figure out that they can, they will. If fuel stays down a bit and the banks get back on track and the sky doesn't fall, it will happen.

If you see what looks like a nice buy on a boat that you LIKE and WANT, go for it. Why wait? Your time is better spent boating than it is shopping.

You are parroting "the consumerist mantra of more."

Its gone Eric. We will likely see personal savings rates go as high as 10% before they turn.

There is plenty of credit available to credit worthy borrowers. I have banks falling all over themselves trying to get me to borrow money.

I have no desire to borrow a nickel. Neither do the other credit-worthy people who are left. There is no trust in the marketplace left in terms of the capital structure, and therefore anyone who is credit-worthy is out of their mind if they commit on any sort of discretionary big-ticket debt.

That leaves only the un-creditworthy (who are happy to take the money) but nobody is dumb enough to loan them anything any more.

The trust problem cannot be solved by time. It is only solved by transparency so that those in the markets you are referring to can make reasonably-accurate forecasts of forward demand and thus run their businesses in a sustainable and profitable fashion. It is currently impossible to do this as a direct consequence of how our government has handled this mess and at present there is no reason to believe that is going to change; certainly, nothing our government has done thus far supports the idea that there will be meaningful and actual reform.

You are pining for a level of demand in the general economy that never really existed in a form supported by earnings power (that is, production.) It was all a scam, and now the bubble has burst and the scam been exposed. That's bad, but what's worse is that until businesspeople can recalibrate to actual demand and thus figure out exactly where they are and how to make money, they're not going to spend.

http://market-ticker.org/archives/70...-100-Days.html puts forward a foundation that Obama could lay to do much of this, but he's not going to.

Unless he does what you're hoping for has no chance of materializing.