I dont like Ike....

[Pascal]

the media cone of fear is just that... at 5 days, it's meaningless.

the 120 hours foreceast is currently on FTL but that' sgoing to change back and forth so I'm not panicking just yet.

1)- it's unlikely that Ike will remain that strong, it has a small wind field which will spin donw (or back up) quicker than a storm with a larger wind field and shoudl encounter some shear over the next few days.
2)- being a compact storm the damage area will be small, so moving just 40 miles makes a huge difference.
3)- at this stage, the forecast is nothing than an average of both options... recurving out to sea or straight into the florida straight. Way too early to tell...

i dont' like Ike either, but too early to press the panic button. Angela, if you bail out, i'm sure you can stay at Naomi's ...

[Genesis]

I don't like the synoptic setup on this one a bit.

THis has all the makings of a Katrina-like - or worse, Andrew-like - experience.

I'm getting more concerned it won't recurve too, but you won't know for another day or two.

Unfortunately.

[jim rosenthal]

Seems to me there's plenty to worry about. Not so much up here, but down there...uh oh.

I am going to revise my lines and probably spend the high-tide period on Blue Note. Mostly to watch and make sure there's enough slack for her to ride up if she needs to....I don't think we're going to get a huge surge up here tomorrow, but I have seen eight feet at the dock and no dock showing at all, just the boat and docklines out in the middle of the water.

And I am going to get my G-wagen out of the garage. If I have to drive through water, she'll have the best chance of not stopping in the middle of it.

Good luck to all, and stay in touch...

[Captned]

Thanks guys,

Everybodys right, too early to panic, but.... Im off to check the with dockmaster about the slips over by the sea wall, really protected from the SE / E / NE winds by the the Giant Condo building. Plus less chance of being smacked by a runaway boat. Will reserve one for sunday and on... I have 10,000 fenders... The dockhands here collect them for me. A gazillion feet of three strand nylon and three anchors... Welcome back Ang. Still a lot of time to turn, Yoooweee! look at this! pucker time!

[Pascal]

since yesterday morning the track has shifted from Nassau to FTL to mid everglades... chances of it recurving are getting smaller.

[34Hatt]

Thanks guys,

... I have 10,000 fenders... The dockhands here collect them for me. A gazillion feet of three strand nylon and three anchors...

Yup I have a shed with a bunch of line and old fenders the old ugly ones! People throw them out because they are ugly but if the look half descent I take them. Wife looks at me and says WHAT are going to do with them. I tell her I hope nothing at all but store them

Anyone on a coast should have a plan!
Ang's plan sounds like a good one it helps to be in tight with the marina.


Good Luck to Everyone!!!!!

[Genesis]

11 AM update has it raking Miami and the Keys and going into the Gulf.

Heads up folks - this is getting gnarly, and is starting to smell like a Katrina-esque experience.

[Pascal]

the 11am has shifter to the left gain, now over the lower/central keys which would put Miami out of the damaging winds. (64kts radius is 30NM righ now, 40NM later on the forecast)

of course, it's still 4 days away and things will change but too early to make a decision on where to go as there is still a chance it could recurve a little early.

I'll gladly take a Katrina, it was minor storm over florida... this one is stronger.

[Bertramp]

This is my first in FLA.. ....and I'm in the evacuation zone if it's bad. YIKES !!

[yachtsmanbill]

BUMP ws
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hur...basin=atlantic