11pm NYC just out and they seem to ignore the GFS. 5 day forecast over key west and just beyond now, may thhave morning but they re holding it despite gfs
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I flew the first non military relief flight into Homestead regional with a group of Doctors and Nurses. The devistation was on the scale of a nuclear blast. There was almost nothing standing. I saw cars in the middle of the Everglades miles from any roads. Customs had taken over the airport as they were expecting smugglers taking advantage of the com's and radars that were down. While my group was waiting for their transportation to an aid station one of the customs guys came over and told us I needed to pick them up before dark because their safety couldn't be guaranteed with all the looting and shootings that were happening. One of the nurses started to cry and ended up staying in the plane.
Kermit Weeks had a concrete reinforced hangar there with doors that resembled the blast doors at Cheyenne mountain. The doors had blown off their tracks and crushed a beautiful antique ford trimotor like a beer can.
I flew into Punta Gorda after Charlie to bid on some FEMA trailers yeah the hangars there were F'd also but I seem to remember there was a common design problem with the doors on the ones that failed.
I lost my house in Frances then got punished again in Jeene so I feel your pain.
The 5am has shifted east quite a bit and will probably shift again at 11am As hinted by the language from NHC : "but out of respect for the previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance"
Going to be close. Looks like a run to the west coast is going to be the best option
NHC fell in line with Parker at this time... Still anyone's guess.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...e_and_wind.png
What you guys have to deal with down there is unbelievable. Good luck and god speed!
Another good website seems to be tropicaltidbits.com. Their forecast appears in line with the ones mentioned above. The storm isn't going to encounter much in the way of landmasses that would reduce it's strength- until it gets to FL, when all hell appears ready to break loose. The door is open up here for anyone who finds themselves in the area.
Sam's Marine in Fort Lauderdale is closing for the remainder of the week to allow everyone to make preparations. All calls will be routed to our NC location.
Sooo, OWW locks stayed open late during Matthew and I expect the same. Problem was there was a 7 hour wait to get through the locks. Following the storm, there was a ton of debris.
Plan on all ICW bridges closing 72+ hours before landfall in Miami.
As of Tuesday 8:30am all haul-out facilities in Treasure Coast area were completely booked. I called Fort Pierce City Marina this morning to discuss the situation. Their comment was "Your insurance is up to date, you can stay put. Please unhook your water line". City Marina has great floating docks so I'll double lines and put out the big bumpers. I will also pull cockpit canvas as well as tape all door and hatch seams. If we take a direct hit I will be surprised she survives.....
We are at the Marriott on Hutchinson Island and there are only 10 boats still here. Folks have been leaving for haul out/inland docking for 2 days already. I suspect river traffic will be far less than it was for Matthew. Seems like everyone was last minute for him but are moving earlier for this bitch.
A few poor souls here could not find safe harbor and I'm praying for them.
We are out of here by 8 AM tomorrow after taking on some extra fuel. Friday and Saturday lashing, tieing, strapping, etc. then it will be out of our hands. Inland about 10-15 miles at a hotel until at least Tuesday with a contingency to go to Orlando (or even Tampa) if prudent.
Hope everyone in the path stays safe with an extra prayer for you who are in Ga/SC!